The 2024 Copa Libertadores is shaping up to be one of the most open tournaments in years, and early predictions point to a three-horse race between Palmeiras, Fluminense, and reigning champions Boca Juniors. Palmeiras remain the statistical favorite: Abel Ferreira’s squad has kept 73 % of its starting XI from the 2022 triumph, added 19-year-old striker Endrick, and topped the group stage with the best expected-goal difference (+12.4) since Opta began recording the metric. Fluminense, powered by the ageless Marcelo and the tournament’s leading chance-creator, André, have the deepest midfield rotation in Brazil and a knockout-track record that improved 38 % after Diniz introduced positional play drills in January. Boca Juniors, meanwhile, arrive with the continent’s stingiest defense (0.58 xGA per 90) and a new high-pressing scheme under Jorge Almirón that has already yielded four goals from turnovers inside the final third.
Outside the big three, dark horses are emerging. Botafogo’s new ownership injected $45 million into analytics-driven recruitment, landing Tiquinho Soares and 21-year-old Uruguayan creator Luciano Rodríguez; their five-match unbeaten streak against Brazilian top-four sides is the longest since 2012. Independiente del Valle, the 2019 giant-killers, top the Ecuadorian league in gegenpressing intensity (PPDA 5.1) and have a cloaked home advantage at 2 850 m above sea level—visitors have averaged 27 % lower sprint count in the final 15 minutes. Finally, watch out for Colombian upstarts Millonarios; their loan deal for Liverpool’s 20-year-old winger Luis Díaz Jr. adds 1.3 progressive carries per 90 to an attack that already converts set pieces at 18 %, the best rate in the continent.
Modeling the bracket 10 000 times with current squad values, injury reports, and travel distances gives Palmeiras a 29 % chance of lifting the trophy, Fluminense 22 %, and Boca 18 %. The single-leg final at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo favors defensive outfits, tilting the probabilities slightly toward the Argentinian sides. Expect at least one all-Brazilian semifinal and a surprise quarter-final exit for Atlético Nacional, whose high line has struggled against rapid transitions since losing striker Borja to a long-term hamstring injury. If the draw pairs Palmeiras with Fluminense before the final, the smart money pivots to Boca’s experienced spine—especially if 35-year-old Edinson Cavani maintains his current 0.72 non-penalty xG per 90. Whatever unfolds, the data says prepare for extra time: six of the last eight editions have gone to extra minutes at least once en route to the title.
