The 2024-25 Turkey Super Lig campaign is shaping up to be the most open race in years, with traditional heavyweights Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe both overhauling their squads while ambitious Trabzonspor and surprise package Başakşehir wait to pounce. Here is a data-driven prediction of how the table will finish next May, based on expected goals models, summer transfer impact, coaching continuity, and early-season form.
1. Galatasaray – 79 pts
Despite losing Icardi for long stretches last spring, Okan Buruk’s side still generated the league’s best xG differential (+32). The arrivals of savvy winger Barış Alper Yılmaz’s permanent deal and Watford-reject striker João Pedro add depth without disrupting chemistry.中心预测：Cimbom edge a tight title on goal difference.
2. Fenerbahçe – 79 pts
José Mourinho’s title pedigree is worth an estimated +6 league points according to historic coaches’ impact studies. The Fred–Szymanski midfield pivot finally gives the Canaries second-ball security, while Dzeko’s aging legs are offset by teenage prodigy Batuhan Çelik. Expect a fiery Kadıköy record (14-3-0) to fall just short.
3. Trabzonspor – 69 pts
Abdullah Avcı continues to coach the league’s best pressing scheme (PPDA 8.1), and new Bosman signing Enis Bardhi supplies set-piece magic. Depth remains the concern; once European qualifiers begin, the Black Sea giants will fade.
4. Başakşehir – 62 pts
Emre Belözoğlu’s tactical flexibility—switching between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3 within matches—earned the “Orange” the best points-per-game finish post-World Cup break. Veteran striker Kruse plus smart loans from City Football Group keep them in Europe again.
5. Beşiktaş – 59 pts
Transition year under rookie manager Serdar Topraktepe sees the Black Eagles phase out aging stars like Ghezzal and N’Koudou. Rising left-back Rıdvan Yılmaz’s return offsets departing Rosier, but midfield creativity drops from 1.9 to 1.3 key passes per game.
Relegation Zone
Antalyaspor’s sale of their top-two scorers leaves them without proven firepower, while Pendikspor’s tiny budget and 12,000-seat stadium can’t mask an xGA of 1.91 per match. Gaziantep’s nine-point administrative deduction after licensing breaches seals the third drop spot.
Golden Boot Race
Dzeko (Fener) edges Muslera’s toughest tests, projected at 24 goals; Galatasaray’s João Pedro bags 19, but Mourinho’s “park-the-bus” strategy against fellow big-four sides hands the Bosnian the edge on volume.
Stretch Forecast
Watch Kayserispor’s Mame Thiam to eclipse market expectations of 8 goals; the Senegal winger posted 0.81 npxG/90 last spring and now links with creative 10MF Miguel Cardoso. Also pencil in Adana Demirspor for a top-half finish if striker Cherif Ndiaye stays beyond January—his 0.55 xG+xA/90 ranks third among strikers aged under 26.
Bottom line: expect another Istanbul duel, but the gap is closing. If Galatasaray survive an injury-hit October, they repeat. Yet any slip lets Mourinho snatch a record-breaking 22nd Turkish crown on the final weekend.
