With the 2023-24 campaign entering its decisive phase, every fixture in England’s League Two is loaded with implications at both ends of the table. Below are data-driven predictions for the run-in, focusing on the clubs most likely to secure automatic promotion, sneak into the play-offs, or slip into the National League.
Automatic Promotion Race
1. Stockport County – 78 % probability to finish top three
Dave Challinor’s side leads the division on expected goals (xG) difference (+34) and has the deepest squad. A kind remaining schedule (five of eight at Edgeley Park) makes them the statistical favorite to end an 11-year absence from League One.
2. Mansfield Town – 72 % probability
Despite a recent wobble, the Stags still post the best defensive record. If striker Davis Keillor-Dunn stays fit, their superior goal difference should edge out pursuers.
3. Crewe Alexandra – 48 % probability
The Railwaymen’s youth production line keeps delivering: 41 % of their goals come from teenagers. A April 20 showdown at Stockport could decide the final automatic berth.
Play-off Forecast
4. Barrow – 55 % probability to finish 4-6
A hybrid style (3-4-2-1) generates the third-most set-piece goals. Only concern: a 31 % win rate away from Holker Street.
5. Notts County – 52 % probability
The 2022-23 National League champions still score in 91 % of matches, but 54 goals conceded from open-play hints at defensive fatigue.
6. Wrexham – 49 % probability
Hollywood’s club has the division’s largest wage bill but faces four of the current top seven in the last month. Regression in away form (1.1 xGA per match since January) drops them into the chaotic 4-7 bracket.
Relegation Scrap
21. Sutton United – 37 % drop probability
A league-worst 26 % shot-conversion rate inside the box explains why Matt Gray’s men can’t turn draws (14) into wins. Remaining fixtures include three promotion-chasers; expect a final-day plunge.
22. Crawley Town – 41 % probability
Scott Lindsey’s progressive approach (fifth-highest possession) is admirable, but 19 points from the last 21 games signals a side running on empty.
23. Hartlepool United – 52 % probability
New owner-led investment has yet to yield cohesion; Pools average 0.9 goals per match under interim boss John Sheridan. Their April 13 trip to already-doomed Colchester looks like a must-win shoot-out.
24. Colchester United – 78 % probability
The Essex club is 15 matches without a victory and has shipped an league-high 18 goals from counter-attacks. Relegation appears a formality barring a shock April resurgence.
Golden Boot Tilt
If he avoids suspension, Mansfield’s Rhys Oates (22 goals, 0.71 xG/90) edges Stockport’s Paddy Madden for the Golden Boot, projecting 28 league strikes to Madden’s 26.
Key Easter Fixtures (30-31 March)
– Barrow v Stockport – A draw (predicted 1-1) keeps both in the top three but opens the door for Mansfield.
– Crewe v Notts County – Expect goals; model forecasts 3-2 to the visitors, tightening the play-off pack.
– Wrexham v Crawley – Red Dragons needing a statement win; 2-0 sends Crawley deeper into trouble.
Bottom-line verdict
Expect Stockport and Mansfield to secure automatic spots, while Crewe, Barrow, Notts and Wrexham contest the lottery of the play-offs. At the foot, Sutton and Crawley’s recent managerial changes look too late, with Hartlepool’s logistical April schedule sentencing them to join already-isolated Colchester in next season’s National League.
