With only six match-days remaining, the 2023-24 Portugal SuperLiga season is set for a dramatic finish. Here are the key predictions based on current form, advanced metrics andFixture difficulty.
1. Title winner: Benfica (75 % probability)
Roger Schmidt’s side sits two points clear of Porto and four ahead of Sporting. Their remaining schedule ranks as the league’s 4th-easiest, avoiding five of the current top seven away trips. Raphael Dias’ expected-goes model rates Benfica’s attack at 2.11 xG per 90 since January, the best in Portugal. Unless a shocking slip occurs at Estádio da Luz on the final day versus Rio Ave, the Eagles should secure the 38th championship in club history.
2. Champions League places: Porto and Sporting complete top three
Porto’s depth and Champions League experience under Sérgio Conceição should be enough to hold off Braga, who still have to travel to both Porto and Sporting. Sporting’s 25 goals in eight league games post-World Cup make them the most in-form side; they will finish third comfortably, leaving Braga in fourth for the Europa League.
3. Europa Conference League: Braga, Vitória SC, Moreirense
Braga’s calendar (avg. opponent 8.2th in table) is the hardest among contenders. Even if they slip from third, they are still heavy favorites to finish above Vitória de Guimarães (5 % gap in Understat’s xPoints model). Moreirense’s over-performing attack—11 goals from set-pieces—keeps them in the hunt, ultimately edging Famalicão on goal difference.
4. Relegation: Estrela da Amadora, Chaves, Portimonense
Estoril’s winter coaching change (Vasco Seabra) pulled them six points clear of danger, while Estrela’s injury list (9 absences in Matchday 28) and worst non-penalty xG conceded (1.73 per match) point to the drop. Chaves’ brutal run-in—Benfica, Porto, Sporting in last four—seals their fate, joined by Portimonense, whose 16 % save percentage under new keeper Ryoya Odaira is league-worst.
Golden Boot: Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting)
The Swede needs five more to pass Paulistanos’ 20-goal mark but averages 0.83 xG/shot and faces only one top-six defense (Porto) down the stretch. Expect him to finish on 27, two clear of Mehdi Taremi.
Bold prediction
An 89th-minute goal by substitute Casper Tengstedt will clinch the title for Benfica on May 18, replicating the famous “Agostinho” moment of 1994.
Betting insight (22Bet implied odds)
Benfica to lift trophy: 1.53
Over 2.5 goals in Chaves-Benfica Matchday 32: 1.67
Gyökeres anytime scorer vs. Famalicão: 1.80
Whatever unfolds, the Portugal SuperLiga promises a roller-coaster climax—perfect for neutrals and punters alike.
