The 2023-24 Eredivisie enters its last six-match stretch with silverware, European tickets, and survival all up for grabs. Data model simulations, injury checks, and recent underlying numbers point to one clear favorite for the title, three credible top-four hunters, and two clubs most likely to join the already-relegated side in the bottom two.
TITLE RACE
1. PSV Eindhoven – 75 pts | 78% chance
Peter Bosz’s side still boast the league’s best expected-goal difference (+54) and face zero top-six opponents in the run-in. Even two slips keep them above Feyenoord in most Monte Carlo runs; six points from the final 18 guarantees a 25th championship.
2. Feyenoord – 66 pts | 20% chance
Arne Slot’s press-heavy machine refuses to concede anything (20 GA), but the remaining fixture list includes AZ (H) and Twente (A). Win both and hope for a PSV collapse is the only path.
3. AZ Alkmaar – 59 pts | 2% chance
Need a perfect finish plus monumental help; realistically locked into a Europa League spot.
TOP-FOUR SCRAP (earn UCL/EL group stages)
Model noses give:
• AZ 86%
• Twente 72%
• Ajax 40%
Their remaining strength of schedule ranks 10th, 8th, and 5th toughest respectively. Ajax’s resurgence under John van ’t Schip (five straight wins, xG 2.2 per match) could still crash the party, but the 3-point gap to Twente plus an inferior goal difference is the hurdle.
RELEGATION six-pointers
Going down:
• Vitesse (relegated, –9 pts)
• RKC Waalwijk 52% drop chance – five away matches left, worst away xGA (2.1)
• Excelsior 45% – schedule features PSV and AZ in final three
Survival favorites Fortuna Sittard (7 pts clear) and Almere City (five points above) control destiny.
PLAYER TO WATCH
PSV winger Johan Bakayoko: 9 goals + 9 assists, 0.68 xG+xA/90; any direct contribution in Matchday 30 vs. Heerenveen could seal the shield.
SURPRISE SPECIAL
If Sparta beats Feyenoord on May 5, Rotterdam’s red half will officially end their cross-town rivals’ lingering hopes—expect fireworks at Het Kasteel.
Bottom line: expect PSV to lift the shield in front of their own fans on May 12, AZ and Twente to join them in Europe’s top tier, and RKC to face the drop alongside already-doomed Vitesse.
