The 2024-25 Saudi Pro League enters its decisive stretch with three match-days left, and the title odds have narrowed to a two-horse duel between reigning champions Al-Hilal and Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr. Using a hybrid model that combines Elo-based team ratings, player-level minutes lost to injury, and 50 000 Monte-Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures, we project Al-Hilal to finish on 83.4 points (±2.1), giving them an 81 % probability of lifting the trophy for a record-extending 20th time. Al-Nassr’s expected haul of 80.7 points (±2.3) leaves their breakthrough title hopes at 19 %, while third-placed Al-Ahli has been mathematically eliminated despite a late surge under Matthias Jaissle.
Key drivers of the forecast:
1. Remaining schedule strength
Al-Hilal’s final trio—home to Damac, away to Al-Fayha, home to Al-Wehda—carries a combined opponent Elo of 1 576, the league’s softest closing slate. Al-Nassr must travel to high-pressing Al-Taawoun (Elo 1 712) and host an in-form Al-Shabab (Elo 1 694) before a last-day visit to relegation-threatened Abha. The model assigns Al-Hilal 7.6 expected points from those games versus 6.9 for Al-Nassr.
2. Squad health and rotation
Since February, Al-Hilal have lost only 4.3 % of total league minutes to injury, the lowest figure in the league. Kalidou Koulibaly’s return has stabilised a back four that conceded just once in the last six league matches. Al-Nassr, by contrast, will monitor Ronaldo’s 37-year-old hamstrings; his substitute appearances against Al-Raed and Al-Khaleej were pre-planned to keep him below 180 competitive minutes in seven days. Talisca’s suspension for yellow-card accumulation further thins the attacking midfield.
3. Goal-difference cushion
Al-Hilal’s +52 is already a league record and worth the equivalent of 0.9 projected points in tie-break probability. Even if both clubs finish level, Jorge Jesus’s side advances 97 % of the time on goal difference.
4. Upside scenarios
The 1-in-5 world where Al-Nassr claim the crown requires a perfect nine-point finish plus at least one Al-Hilal slip. The most plausible upset pathway is Damac—fighting to avoid the relegation playoff—holding Al-Hilal on penultimate weekend while Al-Nassr win at Al-Taawoun. That combination occurs in 11 % of simulations and sets up a winner-take-all finale.
European ripple effects
The league’s second qualifying slot for the 2025-26 AFC Champions League Elite is virtually secured by Al-Nassr (99 %), meaning the drama is confined to the throne itself. Meanwhile, the relegation model gives Al-Riyadh (72 % chance of drop) and Abha (64 %) the bleakest survival prospects, while Damac’s 45 % relegation probability implies their 29 May visit to Al-Hilal could decide both the champion and the demoted.
Bottom line
Expect Al-Hilal to clinch with a game to spare, rendering the final whistle versus Al-Wehda on 31 May a coronation rather than a contest—unless Damac and Al-Taawoun can conspire to keep Cristiano’s dream alive for one theatrical week.
