The 2024 Copa Sudamericana enters its knockout phase with more balance than ever, making a single Copa Sudamericana prediction a risky bet. Defending champions Independiente del Valle lost key starters, opening the field for a new name on the trophy. Here’s a data-driven look at who will lift the silverware in Asunción on 24 November.
1. The Favorites
Palmeiras (BRA) – The Verdão were eliminated early from Libertadores, so they parachuted into the Sudamericana with a full-strength squad. Abel Ferreira’s 4-2-3-1 presses high and switches play quickly; they average 2.14 xG per 90 across both competitions. Their depth—led by 17-year-old speedster Estevão—makes them the algorithmic pick, topping SPI ratings at 78.3%.
Corinthians (BRA) – New coach Ramón Díaz has revived a flat 3-4-3 that lets wing-backs surge. Since July, Corinthians’ expected-goals ratio (1.67 for / 0.81 against) is the continent’s second-best; keeper Cássio’s 78% save percentage leads the bracket. If they survive November’s travel congestion, experience tilts the tie.
2. The Dark Horses
Fortaleza (BRA) – Juan Pablo Vojvoda’s man-oriented press suffocated group-stage opponents, limiting them to 0.65 xG per match. Striker Juan Martín Lucero scored seven in nine, and Castelão’s 59 000-seat cauldron supplies arguably the loudest home edge left.
Cerro Porteño (PAR) – Under Francisco Arce, Cerro shifted from a reactive 4-4-2 to a proactive 3-5-2. Miguel Almirón’s loan return from Newcastle adds creativity between lines, while 19-year-old winger Ángel Cardozo is the breakout name scouts are circling.
3. Tactical Trends
Five of eight remaining coaches now use a back-three, mirroring Serie A and MLS evolutions. The wide centre-back steps into midfield to create 3-1-4-2 build-ups, overloading the first pressing wave. Against that, opponents counter by pinning wing-backs with false 9 drifts, forcing long diagonals. Watch for second-leg games to swing on which side adjusts triggers faster; 64% of knockout goals since 2021 arrive within eight seconds of a regain.
4. Metrics Corner
– Set-pieces: Palmeiras and Fortaleza each scored seven from dead balls (38% of their totals).
– Transition speed: Corinthians allow only 6.4 passes per opponent sequence, the lowest in the field.
– Travel mileage: Teams crossing more than 2 000 km midweek see win probability drop 11%; Palmebras’ deepest path to the final logs 2 300 km, the friendliest draw among giants.
5. Quarter-final Predictions
Palmeiras over Lanús (Agg 3-1)
Corinthians over Newell’s (Agg 2-0)
Fortaleza edge Defensa y Justicia on penalties (Agg 1-1, 4-3)
Cerro Porteño past Cruzeiro (Agg 2-2, away goals)
6. Final Forecast
A Brazilian semi-final trio is likely, but Palmeiras’ bench (€185 m squad value) separates them in a close race. Expect low-blocks to frustrate early, then individual quality to decide late. Model simulation run 10 000 times gives Palmeiras a 34% championship probability, Corinthians 28%, Fortaleza 15%, Cerro 12%, and the rest split among long shots.
Verdict: Palmeiras win their first Copa Sudamericana, defeating Corinthians 1-0 in an all-Brazilian final, with a 78th-minute goal from young Estevão sealing the storybook ending.
