Spain’s top flight returns to stadiums buzzing with European hopes and relegation fears. From Madrid’s title push to Andalusian survival battles, we’ve crunched the numbers for every match-day 34 showdown.
Barcelona vs Real Sociedad – Saturday 21:00 CET
Barça’s four-match win streak at Montjuïc is built on a re-energized midfield: Pedri has completed 93 % of passes in the final third since March. Sociedad’s away xG differential (-0.41) is the league’s third worst, and their last clean sheet on the road dates back to January. Model projection: 2-0 home win, 64 % probability.
Girona vs Mallorca – Sunday 14:00 CET
Michel’s side is scoring 2.18 goals per 90 when both Iván Martín and Tsygankov start. Mallorca’s deep block concedes only 0.09 xG from central passes, yet set-piece vulnerabilities remain (six goals allowed off corners in 2024). Forecast: Girona 2-1, BTTS “yes” at 71 %.
Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club – Sunday 16:15 CET
Simeone’s men average 1.93 non-penalty xG at home since the winter break, but Athletic’s high press regains possession 11.2 times per match inside the opposition half—second best in LaLiga. Expect a narrow affair: 1-1 draw rated 35 %, under 2.5 goals 59 %.
Valencia vs Almería – Sunday 18:30 CET
Rubén Baraja has tightened Valencia’s defense (0.92 xGA per match in last eight), while already-relegated Almería still creates 1.34 xG on the counter. The market tilts toward a comfortable Ché win: 3-1 probability 27 %, Valencia -1 Asian handicap 1.82.
Cádiz vs Las Palmas – Monday 21:00 CET
Cádiz need points like oxygen. Their direct style generates 0.42 xG per match from crosses, the league’s highest share. Las Palmas’ defensive width leaves 38 % of the final third unpressed, inviting those exact diagonal balls. Prediction: 1-0 to the hosts, 41 %.
Accumulator Angle
Combining Barça win, Girona win, and Valencia win pays 4.35 at consensus odds—model fair value estimated at 4.01, suggesting a marginal 8 % edge. Gamble responsibly and within jurisdiction.
