The 2024–25 Belgian Pro League is nearing its nail-biting conclusion, and the newly expanded 16-team split-format has already delivered more plot twists than a prestige streaming drama. With five matchdays left before the championship playoffs, data models now make the following Belgium league predictions based on form, underlying metrics, injury reports and remaining strength of schedule.
Title Race
Union SG still top the table on 55 points, but their xG differential has cooled since the winter break (1.82 per match, down from 2.10). Models that overweight recent performances give Royal Antwerp a 38 % probability of overhauling them; Antwerp’s four-match winning streak coincides with Toby Alderweireld’s return to fitness and a sustainable 2.05 non-penalty xG per 90. Club Brugge sit two points behind Union; our Monte Carlo simulation awards them a 31 % title chance thanks to the easiest run-in (average opponent ELO 1,482). Surprise package Genk, level on points with Brugge, are fourth in the prediction index (23 %) because their high-press style generates the league’s best shot suppression (8.4 allowed per match). Do not completely discount Anderlecht (11 %); they face three of the current bottom five before the split and have the playoff experience edge.
Top Four & Europe
The same simulations give an 87 % likelihood that the championship playoff spots will be filled by the current top five, leaving Cercle Brugge and Gent on the outside. Gent’s road record—just one win in eight—caps their UCL qualification probability at 9 %. The battle for the remaining Europa League berth (granted to the playoff winner) projects to be a two-horse contest between Westerlo and Mechelen; expected goals parity (Westerlo +0.11 per match) is outweighed by Mechelen’s superior squad depth after the winter window, nudging them to 54 % for continental qualification.
Relegation Scrap
The bottom three after the split automatically drop to Division 1B, and the models are merciless for Eupen and RWD Molenbeek (relegation likelihood 79 % and 67 % respectively). The final fall guy is forecast to be Kortrijk (41 %), whose inability to convert set-pieces—only four goals from 112 corners—has cost them 7.2 expected points. OH Leuven and Standard Liège retain one-in-three drop odds, but recent managerial changes have stabilized underlying metrics enough to project survival.
Golden Boot & Player Markets
With nine rounds plus playoffs remaining, Royal Antwerp’s Georges Mikautadze leads the scoring chart on 19 goals. Poisson goal models price him at evens to finish top scorer, edging past Union’s Mohamed Amoura (19 %) who will miss two fixtures due to AFCON qualification duty. Midfield markets offer value on Brugge’s Hans Vanaken to top the assist chart at 5-1; his 0.41 xA per 90 is league-best and set-piece monopoly is intact.
Betting Angles
1. Over 2.5 goals in Antwerp v Genk (week 29) projects 62 %—both sides rank top four for shot volume.
2. Back Union SG to win-to-nil away at Eupen (week 30) at 2.25; Eupen have failed to score in five of their last seven at the Kehrweg.
3. Each-way punt on Mechelen to win the Europa League playoff at 7-1 offers positive expected value given their path avoids the Big Five until the semi-final.
Key Injuries & Suspensions
Club Brugge will regain Noa Lang after a one-match ban, but remains without Denis Odoi (calf, 3 weeks). Anderlecht midfield anchor Majeed Ashimeru is out for the run-in with an MCL tear, slicing their ball-progression numbers by 14 %. Monitor Union striker Victor Boniface, who returned to partial training; his availability could swing their title odds ±8 percentage points.
Final Projection
Run 10,000 season simulations and Antwerp ultimately edge the title 36 % of the time, largely on superior goal difference if level, while Union SG claim it 32 %. The remaining 32 % is carved up by Brugge, Genk and the chasing pack. Whatever happens, expect fireworks in May when the championship playoff’s double round-robin kicks off with half the league still mathematically alive—an outcome Belgium’s reformers dreamt of when they reinvented the format.
