Arsenal vs Chelsea PredictZ: Score, Stats & Betting Insights for the London Derby
The Emirates Stadium is ready for another seismic London derby on Saturday as Mikel Arteta’s high-flying Arsenal welcome Mauricio Pochettino’s resurgent Chelsea. PredictZ algorithms, which crunch 200+ variables from expected goals (xG) to recent pressing efficiency, make the Gunners narrow 2.1-1.7 favourites on the 1×2 market, translating to a 44 % win probability for Arsenal, 29 % for Chelsea and 27 % the draw.
Form & Key Stats
Arsenal arrive unbeaten in nine Premier League matches (W7 D2) and have scored in 15 consecutive league fixtures, averaging 2.3 goals per game. Bukayo Saka leads the league with 11 big chances created from open play since February. Chelsea, meanwhile, have lost only once in their last seven (W4 D2) and Kai Havertz has hit five goals in that span—his best streak in English football. PredictZ flags Chelsea’s away xGA (expected goals against) trending downward from 1.71 to 1.23 in the last five, hinting at Pochettino’s defensive recalibration.
Head-to-Head Edge
The last five league meetings read: Arsenal W3, Chelsea W1, D1, but the Blues won the reverse fixture 2-1 at the Emirates in November, ending a seven-match winless run against their rivals. PredictZ notes Arsenal’s set-piece potency: 31 % of their goals this season originate from dead-ball situations, the highest ratio in the EPL. Chelsea concede 0.28 set-piece goals per 90—mid-table security—but will be without suspended centre-back Axel Disasi, tilting the aerial balance further toward Arsenal.
Projected Line-ups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Ødegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Petrovic; Gusto, Chalobah, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Gallagher; Palmer, Enzo, Mudryk; Jackson.
PredictZ Score Model
Using Poisson simulations calibrated with player-level EPA (expected possession added), the most likely scorelines are:
2-1 Arsenal (17 % probability)
1-1 draw (14 %)
3-1 Arsenal (12 %)
1-2 Chelsea (10 %)
Betting Angles
• Arsenal win & both teams to score sits at 3.40 (PredictZ value index +0.18).
• Over 2.5 goals pays 1.80, hitting in eight of Chelsea’s last ten away matches.
• Saka anytime scorer (2.75) offers value against a right-side pivot of Gusto-Palmer that ranks 16th among EPL pairs for dribblers tackled.
Injury Watch
Arsenal: Timber (ACL) out; Partey (thigh) 75 % fit.
Chelsea: James (suspension), Disasi (suspension), Lavia (thigh) out; Nkunku (hamstring) doubtful.
Final PredictZ Call
Expect an open, end-to-end contest. Arsenal’s structural dominance and set-piece edge should outweigh Chelsea’s transitional threat, but a Blues goal looks likelier than the outright market suggests. PredictZ final tip: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea, over 2.5 goals, Saka to register either a goal or an assist.
