Gameweek 12 delivers a full six-match card in the SSE Airtricity League, and the statistics point to goals, upsets, and a couple of bankers. Below are data-driven Irish Premier Division predictions for every fixture on today’s slate.
Shamrock Rovers vs. Drogheda United – Tallaght Stadium 19:45 GMT
Rovers come in unbeaten at home (W5-D1-L0) with a league-best xG difference of +1.34 per 90. Drogheda have lost their last four on the road and average 0.91 goals per away game. Expect Stephen Bradley’s side to dominate the ball; the model gives Rovers an 81 % win probability, projecting 3-0 with 14+ shots on target for the champions.
Derry City vs. St Patrick’s Athletic – Ryan McBride Brandywell 19:45 GMT
Derry’s high press has forced the most high turnovers (63) this season, while St Pats look fatigued after Thursday’s Europa Conference qualifier. Dean Lynagh is suspended for the visitors; that tilts the scales toward the Candystripes. Forecast: 2-1 home win with both teams scoring inside 70 minutes.
Dundalk vs. Bohemians – Oriel Park 19:45 GMT
A derby that has produced 22 cards in the last three meetings. Dundalk switched to a back three last week and kept their first clean sheet since March; Bohs remain electric on transitions (4th-fastest direct speed). The draw is the value at 3.40, but if you need a pick: 1-1, scoring via second-half set pieces.
Shelbourne vs. UCD – Tolka Park 19:45 GMT
Shels average 2.08 xG at home versus bottom-four sides; UCD have taken zero points from 18 available away to top-half opposition this term. Will Jarvis has scored in four straight for the Reds. Prediction: Shelbourne -1 Asian handicap lands comfortably in a 2-0 victory.
Sligo Rovers vs. Cork City – The Showgrounds 19:45 GMT
Sligo have faced the fewest shots in the division (88), but Cork’s new 4-4-2 under Richie Holland has created 6.2 xG across the last three matches. Model says unders first half, overs second. Lean: 1-1 draw, with goals after the 60-minute mark.
Finn Harps vs. Waterford – Finn Park 20:00 GMT
Relegation six-pointer under the Donegal lights. Waterford have scored first in six straight, yet they also own the joint-worst second-half record (11 goals conceded after half-time). Harps’ Mark Coyle controls tempo, and if he avoids another early booking the hosts can nick it. Call: 1-0 Finn Harps, under 2.5 total goals.
Best Bets Summary
Acca (4-fold): Shamrock Rovers & Shelbourne to win, Derry City to score 2+, Sligo-Cork BTTS – pays 7.8/1 with major books.
Top scorer bet: Will Jarvis (Shelbourne) anytime at 2.10 offers gaping value against UCD’s collegiate back line.
Cards market: Dundalk-Bohemians over 4.5 cards 1.83 is a steady 63 % hit-rate angle in rivalry fixtures.
Whatever you fancy, stake responsibly and enjoy what looks like the most entertaining Monday night calendar of the 2024 Irish Premier Division season so far.
