With the 2024–25 2. Bundesliga season entering its decisive stretch, every point feels like gold. Below are data-driven predictions for the final table, key players to watch, and the storylines that will dominate the run-in.
1. Automatic Promotion Race
ST. PAULI – The league leaders have the deepest squad (market value €78 m) and the best expected-goals differential (+22.3). Even a slight regression keeps them on 68–70 points, enough for the title.
HOLSTEIN KIEL – Coach Marcel Rapp’s 3-4-3 overloads create the most big chances (1.9 per 90). Their remaining schedule ranks 14th in difficulty; the model gives Kiel a 64 % chance of finishing second.
2. Relegation Battle
HANSA ROSTOCK – Distance-covered metrics have collapsed 7 % since match-day 20, and xGA in set-pieces is worst in the league (0.47 per game). The forecast says 31 points, three short of safety.
VFL OSNABRÜCK – 1.03 goals scored per 90 vs. 1.78 conceded is a recipe for the bottom slot. Survival probability: 8 %.
3. Dark Horse for the Play-off
FORTUNA DÜSSESELORF – After a winter training-camp tweak, Rouwen Hennings’ shot volume jumped 22 %. Expected finish: 4th, but with a 38 % shot at the play-off spot.
4. Key Players to Watch
– Johannes Eggestein (St. Pauli): 0.61 non-penalty xG+xA/90, tops among strikers.
– Philipp Treu (Kiel): 8.2 progressive passes per 90, the engine of Kiel’s build-up.
– David Kownacki (Düsseldorf): 11 off-ball runs into the box per match, most in division.
5. Monte Carlo Simulation Summary
10 000 season simulations (using Elo, injuries, schedule strength) yield these most-likely final positions:
1. St. Pauli – 69 pts
2. Kiel – 66 pts
3. Hamburg – 63 pts
4. Düsseldorf – 61 pts
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16. Rostock – 31 pts
17. Osnabrück – 27 pts
18. Kaiserslautern – 25 pts
Bottom line: expect St. Pauli’s party on the Millerntor, Kiel’s compact shape to hold nerves, and a dramatic last-day escape act in the lower reaches that could still flip the drop zone upside-down.
