The 2024–25 Bulgarian Parva Liga is set to kick off with more intrigue than ever, as Ludogorets Razgrad chase an unprecedented 14th consecutive title while a cluster of ambitious clubs plot to end the dynasty. Drawing on last year’s xG tables, summer transfer net-spend, and pre-season expected goal difference (xGD) in friendly matches, here is a data-driven prediction for how the table will finish.
1. Ludogorets Razgrad – Champions (82 pts)
Despite losing Dominican playmaker Cauly to the Saudi Pro League, the Eagles reinvested €9 million in Red Bull Salzburg winger Roko Šimić and Basel center-back Omar Alderete. Their pre-season xGD of +1.83 per 90 minutes across eight fixtures is 0.61 better than any rival, and the squad depth is simply unmatched in Bulgaria. Expect only a brief October slump after Europa League double-headers.
2. CSKA Sofia – 2nd (68 pts)
The “Reds” finally appointed a progressive coach in 37-year-old Macedonian strategist Goce Sedloski, whose 3-4-2-1 yielded 1.97 points per game at Konyaspor. New striker Marco Farfan’s 0.61 non-penalty xG/90 in Peru bodes well, but the midfield still lacks a metronome to break Ludogorets’ press. A derby double over Levski will secure runners-up spot on head-to-head record.
3. Levski Sofia – 3rd (65 pts)
Financial fair-play restrictions limited Levski to free transfers, yet the loan return of 19-year-old winger Marin Petkov adds 0.34 xG/90 in shot-creating actions. Jesper Fredberg’s high line conceded 1.21 xGA per 90 last spring; unless veteran keeper Plamen Andreev repeats his 79 %-save percentage, they drop points at mid-table traps like Beroe and Arda.
4. Slavia Sofia – 4th (58 pts)
Anton Petkov’s side led the league in post-split expected points (xP 17.4 from 10 games) thanks to an aggressive rest-defence that starts counter-pressing inside the opponent’s box. Retaining top scorer Kalojan Krastev and adding veteran regista Slavcho Shokolarov on a one-year deal gives Slavia the best outside chance of breaking the Big-3 cartel.
5. Cherno More Varna – 5th (56 pts)
The “Sailors” posted the second-best set-piece xG (16.7) in 2023–24; with 2.01-meter center-back Viktor Lyubenov arriving from Spartak Varna, they should edge tight low-blocks. Road form remains the Achilles heel—only 1.1 xGF per 90 away from the Naval Academy Stadium.
6. Lokomotiv Plovdiv – 6th (54 pts)
New Uruguayan Sporting Director Daniel Farías has mined the Montevideo market for two ball-progressors: left-footed full-back Matías Caseres and box-to-box midfielder Ignacio Quintans. Their progressive-pass percentage in the final third should jump from 38 % to north of 45 %, enough for a top-half finish but not the top-four dream.
Relegation Battle
Botev Vratsa’s squad market value dipped below €3 million after selling striker Evgeniy Tuntev to Dinamo Minsk. Our model gives them a 61 % chance of finishing bottom. Spartak Pleven and Hebar Pazardzhik complete the drop-zone trio, with Etar Veliko Tarnovo surviving via the promotion/relegation playoff on away goals.
Golden Boot
Roko Šimić is projected to score 22 goals (18.4 xG), edging CSKA’s Farfan by two strikes. The key: Ludogorets create 2.4 big chances per match; no other side exceeds 1.7.
Surprise Package
Septemvri Sofia, back in the top flight, signed five loanees from Serie B. Their vertical 4-2-3-1 averaged 1.91 xGF in Bulgaria’s second tier, and manager Stefan Stoyanov is a set-piece savant—expect upsets at CSKA and Levski that could catapult the newcomers to seventh.
Bottom Line
Unless Ludogorets suffer an injury tsunami, the title race is effectively over by March. The real drama lies in the dogfight for European spots and the survival scrap where xGA margins are razor-thin. Bet responsibly, track pre-lineup xG on Saturday mornings, and enjoy another gripping Bulgarian season.
