The 2024-25 Belgian Jupiler Pro League season kicks off on 26 July, and the narrative arcs are already sharpening. Champions Union SG begin their title defence with a squad deeper than last year, but Club Brugge—under new coach Nicky Hayen—have re-armed with Canadian jewel Ismaël Koné and Danish winger Anders Dreyer. Analysts’ xG models peg the two sides within 0.03 expected-points per game of each other, forecasting a photo-finish that could swing on the 27 March head-to-head at Lotto Park.
Behind the big two, Genk’s data profile screams regression: they over-performed one-goal wins by 38 % last term, and the loss of striker Tolu Arokodare to Leipzig slashes their set-piece threat. Expect a slide to 5th, with Antwerp—Europa League finalists—poised to snatch the last Champions League play-off slot via the disciplined pressing of Jacob Ondrejka and the creative metronome of new captain Jurgen Ekkelenkamp.
The European-battle tier will be hotly contested. Kortrijk’s loan coup of 19-year-old Barcelona winger Ilias Akhomach adds verticality, while OH Leuven’s analytics department quietly built the league’s best defensive rest-defence structure since January. Both clubs are projected to finish 7th-9th, sandwiching Gent, whose Europa Conference League hangover and post-Depoitre scoring void drop them to 8th.
At the bottom, the forecast is brutal for newcomers. Promoted side Beerschot averaged only 0.91 xG/90 in 1B and conceded 23 set-piece goals; translation models map that to 0.7 top-flight points per game—standard relegation form. Eupen’s squad market value ranks 16th, and an ageing spine (average starter age 28.4) is tipped to tail off after matchday 20, leaving them 15th on goal difference. The final slot will tighten between RWD Molenbeek—whose tiny budget restricts squad rotation—and Charleroi, whose pre-season under-performed non-penalty xG by 25 %. A last-day trip to Standard Liège could consign Charleroi to the play-out if they still haven’t solved their left-side overload problem.
Surprise package? Keep an eye on Cercle Brugge. Paul Clement’s positional-play principles generated the 3rd-best pressing efficiency after matchday 15 last season, and the permanent signing of striker Kévin Denkey (20 league goals) upgrades a finishing department that under-shot xG by 9 goals. Probability sims give them a 21 % chance to crash the top four, the highest “upset” odds in the model.
Best bets ahead of matchday 1:
– Union SG vs. Club Brugge draw at 3.30 (both coaches historically cautious in early big games).
– Over 2.5 goals in Cercle-Westerlo (average combined xG 3.38 last four meetings).
– Beerschot +1 Asian handicap at Eupen on opening weekend; Eupen’s 12-match winless home run dates back to April.
Bottom line: expect Union SG to edge the trophy on 78 points, Club Brugge to finish second on 76, and Beerschot plus Eupen to contest the relegation group next May.
