France’s Ligue 1 returns to center stage this weekend as Paris Saint-Germain travel to Stade Brestois on Saturday evening before Marseille host Lens in a Sunday night thriller. With only four match-days left before the split, every point is precious in the race for Europe and the relegation fight. Our data-driven model projects the following outcomes:
Brest vs. PSG – 10% Home, 22% Draw, 68% Away
PSG have won their last six away league games and average 2.6 expected goals on the road. Brest’s high press leaves space behind for Mbappé’s diagonal runs; expect the visitors to exploit the right channel where Brest’s full-backs have conceded six open-play assists in 2024.
Reims vs. Toulouse – 46% Home, 29% Draw, 25% Away
Reims’ five-match unbeaten streak is built on a compact 4-2-3-1 that limits opponents to 0.09 xG per set piece, the best mark in the league. Toulouse struggle offensively without Aboukhlal, scoring only three times in their last seven. A low-scoring draw is the value pick here.
Marseille vs. Lens – 37% Home, 30% Draw, 33% Away
Marseille’s new 3-4-3 under Gasset has lifted their expected goals difference by 0.44 per match, but Lens’ counter-press recovers the ball in the final third more than any side outside the top three. With both teams pressing high, the model forecasts at least three cards and over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
升降级附加赛展望
Looking ahead, the relegation play-off is projected to feature Lorient against Caen. Lorient’s 0.96 points per game at home is the worst in the top flight, while Caen’s expected goals away from home ranks fourth among Ligue 2 teams since February. The model gives Caen a 55% chance of pulling off the upset over two legs.
Betting Angles
Best value: PSG -1 Asian handicap at 1.90.
Long shot: Reims to win to nil at 3.40.
Cards market: Marseille-Lens over 3.5 cards at 1.75 remains undervalued after referee Clément Turpin showed 27 yellows in his last five Ligue 1 appointments.
All projections update nightly using player-level tracking data, injury reports, and referee tendencies. For live model shifts and in-play alerts, follow the France Soccer Predictions dashboard.
