Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions: Who Will Rule Liga Portugal in 2024–25?
The 2024–25 Primeira Liga season is just weeks away from kickoff, and the balance of power in Portuguese football is shifting faster than ever. Below are data-driven predictions for the title race, European places, and the relegation scrap, based on summer transfers, expected goals (xG) trends, coaching changes, and FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings.
1. Title Favorites
Benfica (SPI 84.2)
Roger Schmidt’s side lost Rafa Silva to retirement but replaced him with Atlético’s wide raider Rodrigo Gomes and Stuttgart striker Serhou Guirassy. With a net spend of €48 m, Benfica’s squad depth is unmatched. Model projection: 82 % chance of finishing top two, 51 % title probability.
Porto (SPI 82.7)
New coach Vítor Bruno must integrate Euro 2024 revelation Francisco Conceição and keep Pepe’s heir, 19-year-old Tomás Esteves, fit. Diego Costa’s return in goal shores up a defense that over-performed xGA by 7.4 last year. Projection: 46 % top-two, 31 % title.
Sporting CP (SPI 80.1)
Rúben Amorim finally sanctioned a high-leverage sale, shipping Manuel Ugarte to PSG for €60 m, but reinvested promptly in 20-year-old Genk destroyer Eliaquim Mangala and Swedish winger Yusuf Yalcin. Their high press still generates the league’s best shot differential (+3.1 per 90). Projection: 35 % top-two, 18 % title.
2. Europa League Dogfight
Braga (SPI 75.4) – Europa League winners two seasons ago, now managed by Carlos Carvalhal. Loss of Al-Musrati to Lyon hurts, but arrival of Benfica loan João Neves offsets midfield vacuum. Projection: 68 % top-four.
Vitória SC (SPI 70.8) – Under Álvaro Pacheco, the Guimarães side posted the third-best xG differential after January. If Jota Silva stays beyond August, they’re the best bet to crash the “Big Four.” Projection: 27 % top-four.
Dark horses: Farense (SPI 66.2) and Casa Pia (SPI 64.1) both run payroll-efficient xG models and could nab Conference League qualifiers if Braga slips.
3. Relegation Zone
Portimonense lost top scorer Ronie Carrillo to injury in preseason and sold two starting center-backs; their xGA jumped 0.35 per game after February. Projection: 41 % relegation.
Estrela da Amadora survived via playoffs last May but didn’t upgrade a strike force that converted just 9.1 % of shots. Projection: 38 % relegation.
AVS (promoted) rely on former Benfica B coach Pepa, yet roster turnover is 70 %. Projection: 34 % relegation.
Boavista’s financial embargo means they can’t register new signings; if the ban holds, projection rises to 50 %.
4. Golden Boot Race
With Mehdi Taremi gone to Inter, the scoring mantle is open. Market odds and shot-volume models favor:
• Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting) – 27 % chance, 22–24 goals
• Serhou Guirassy (Benfica) – 24 % chance, 20–22 goals
• Samu Omorodion (Porto, loan) – 18 % chance, 18–20 goals
5. Breakthrough Talents to Watch
João Rego (18, Estoril) – left-back with 3.2 progressive passes per 90
Hugo Félix (19, Benfica B) – 0.68 xG+xA per 90 in Liga 2
Dário Essugo (17, Sporting) – 6′2″ pivot already compared to a young William Carvalho
6. Key Advanced Stats Snapshot (2023–24)
Highest PPDA (press intensity): Sporting 5.9
Lowest xGA per set piece: Porto 0.19
Most fast-break goals: Benfica 19
Worst conversion of big chances: Estorla 38 %
Bottom Line
Unless Porto’s back line collapses or Sporting finds a 20-goal striker in January, Benfica’s blend of depth and analytics-driven recruitment makes them odds-on favorites. Yet the gap between the “Big Three” and chasing Braga is narrower than any season since 2015–16, promising another roller-coaster campaign from the Atlantic to the Algarve.
Bet responsibly, track rolling xG tables weekly, and enjoy the ride—Liga Portugal never stays predictable for long.
