The 2024-25 Italian Serie B campaign is shaping into one of the most open races in years, with no runaway favourite and at least eight clubs dreaming of a top-flight return. After crunching underlying numbers, tracking summer transfer spin cycles and projecting how each squad will cope with the 38-game slog, the model below highlights where the smart money—and the surprise storylines—sit entering Match-day 1.
1. Automatic Promotion Forecast
Palermo (42 % title probability) – The Rosanero kept top scorer Matteo Brunori, added Serie A minutes from Venezia’s Tessmann on loan and hired a proven promotion winner in Eugenio Corini. Their +21 goal difference in the final 14 fixtures of 2023-24 was league-best, and a fully-armed Barbera is worth an extra 0.25 xG per game.
Sampdoria (34 %) – The Blucerchiati finally offloaded high-earning deadwood, trimmed the wage bill by 28 % and reinvested in two pacey wingers who fit Andrésini’s vertical 4-2-3-1. If Pussetto stays fit, our algorithm tabs them for 74 points, enough for second place.
Parma (29 %) – Pecchia’s side generated the highest cumulative xP (expected points) post-January but drew 11 stalemates. Regression to the mean in one-goal games should push them past 70 points and into the top two.
2. Play-off Quartet
Sudtirol’s high press under Torrente produced the most turnovers in the attacking third last year; with striker Mastrovincenzo back after ACL surgery, they finish 5th.
Torino-backed Venezia ride a soft early schedule into 6th, while Cremonese’s cup hangover drops them to 7th. Surprise package Modena, fuelled by 19-year-old dribbler Brescianini, sneak 8th on the final day thanks to a better head-to-head record against Cittadella.
3. Relegation Scrap
Feralpisalò’s sporting debt hit €11 m; a fire-sale of their full-back pair eroded squad depth. Combine that with the league’s oldest average age (28.7) and the simulation sends them down 63 % of the time.
Ascoli kept only 38 % of minutes from a side that survived on the last day; without fresh equity, they leak 1.9 xGA per match and finish 19th.
Brescia rode a miracle final-month run in 2023-24, but their underlying xGD was –16. Strikeral dependency on 30-year-old Moreo looks ominous—our model gives them a 46 % relegation probability.
4. Golden Boot & Breakout Star
Brunori repeats as capocannoniere with 23 goals (xG 20.8), while 18-year-old Cesena left-back Libetta registers six assists and a €9 m January valuation after emerging as the division’s most progressive passer.
5. End-of-Season Table (model mean simulation)
1. Palermo – 82 pts
2. Sampdoria – 79
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3. Parma – 76
4. Sudtirol – 71
5. Venezia – 69
6. Cremonese – 68
7. Modena – 65
8. Cittadella – 63
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19. Ascoli – 36
20. Feralpisalò – 32
Bottom line: expect another chaotic second-tier soap opera, but if Palermo’s defensive reinforcements gel before October, the Sicilian giants finally end their 11-year top-flight exile.
