The 2023-24 Eerste Divisie campaign is entering its decisive stretch, and the battle for automatic promotion is shaping up to be a three-horse duel between shock leaders SC Zwolle, perennial contenders Heracles Almelo, and experienced hopefuls PEC Zwolle. Below is a data-driven look at who will finish in the coveted top spot and grab the single guaranteed ticket to the Eredivisie.
Current form
Over their last eight league fixtures, SC Zwolle have collected 19 points (W6-D1-L1), while Heracles have 18 and PEC 16. Expected Goals (xG) differentials tell a similar story: SC Zwolle +1.82 per 90, Heracles +1.64, PEC +1.33. All three sides are creating big chances at an unsustainably high clip, but SC Zwolle’s 12-match unbeaten run hints at genuine momentum rather than variance.
Fixture difficulty
The run-in matters more than reputation. According to Infogol’s strength-of-schedule model, SC Zwolle still face four of the bottom six, giving them the softest slate (avg. opponent points 1.05). Heracles confront three top-eight sides in their final six, while PEC must travel to second-placed Almere City and in-form Willem II. Edge: SC Zwolle.
Squad health & minutes
Injuries have gutted Heracles’ wing-back rotation; pair of ACL casualties to Bakker and Knoester removes 1,700 league minutes from the defensive spine. PEC’s talismanic striker Thomas van den Belt is nursing a persistent hamstring issue that has already cost him four starts. SC Zwolle, by contrast, have every core starter available. The correlation between XI continuity and late-season PPG in the second tier is 0.71 since 2016; SC Zwolle’s clean bill vaults them ahead.
XPoints forecast
Simulating the remaining 1,000 fixtures via a bivariate Poisson with team-specific attack/defense parameters yields the following mean expected points:
SC Zwolle 72.4
Heracles 69.7
PEC Zwolle 68.1
Prediction
1. SC Zwolle – automatic promotion (72-74 pts)
2. Heracles Almelo – playoff finalist
3. PEC Zwolle – playoff semifinalist
Expect SC Zwolle’s high-octane press—best counter-press recoveries in the division—to keep grinding out 2-1 score lines, while Heracles’ heavier schedule and patched-up back line leak just enough late goals to surrender top spot on 5 May. If you’re hunting value in the ante-post market, anything better than 2.50 on SC Zwolle to finish first still offers a sliver of EV before bookmakers trim on match day 35.
