After a mid-week round of AFC Champions League exertions, the Saudi Professional League returns with a blockbuster Friday-night clash that could shape the destiny of the 2023–24 championship. League leaders Al-Hilal, unbeaten in 23 consecutive domestic matches, welcome fourth-placed Al-Shabab to Kingdom Arena with a six-point cushion at the summit but only a single game in hand over closest rivals Al-Nassr. Opta’s supercomputer still tags the Blue Wave as 68 % title favorites, yet any slip-up would invite Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr—who face mid-table Al-Fateh earlier the same evening—back into a genuine two-horse race.
Predicted outcome: Al-Hilal 2-1 Al-Shabab. Jorge Jesus is expected to rotate his wide outlets, yet the combination of Malcom’s 1.93 expected assists per 90 and Salem Al-Dawsari’s hot streak (five goals in his last six SPL outings) should unlock a Shabab back line that has conceded in eight straight away fixtures. The visitor’s hope rests on former Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrović’s aerial duels against Al-Hilal’s high-line Rest Defence; if he can earn second-ball collisions for Cristian Guanca, a surprise point is not impossible.
Elsewhere, relegation-haunted Al-Khaleej travel to Abha in a six-pointer where both managers average fewer than 0.9 points per match. The model flags a 38 % probability of a draw, but with centre-back Renan scoring twice in Abha’s last home win, the hosts edge forecasted xG 1.4-1.1. Score pick: Abha 1-0 Al-Khaleej.
Finally, keep an eye on Monday’s Al-Taawoun vs. Al-Ettifaq, where Steven Gerrard’s outfit has kept clean sheets in four of five since Jordan Henderson’s arrival. Expected goals tilt 1.7-1.2 to the Buraidah side, but tactical discipline plus Demarai Gray’s transition runs could nick a 1-1 stalemate at 3.40 odds.
Bottom line: Round 25 projects an average of 2.8 total goals per fixture, and with temperatures dropping to 22 °C in Riyadh, fast tempo and late drama are almost guaranteed.
