The 2024–25 Saudi Arabia Professional League kicks off on 22 August with the league’s star-studded duopoly—Al-Hilal and Al-Nassr—once again expected to decide the championship before the camels come home. Using last year’s xG data, summer transfer activity, managerial continuity and early-season form, here is a data-driven prediction for the final table and the key plot-lines you should watch.
1. Champion: Al-Hilal
Reasoning: Jorge Jesus kept the spine intact (Milinković-Savić, Ruben Neves, Kalidou Koulibaly) and replaced the retiring Gustavo Cuéllar with João Gomes, giving them the league’s best ball-winning midfielder. xG differential in 2023-24 was +43, eight goals better than Al-Nassr even before Neymar’s return from ACL surgery is factored in. Depth is unmatched: seven starters would walk into any rival XI. Projected points: 77–80.
2. Runner-up: Al-Nassr
Cristiano Ronaldo scored 35 league goals last term at age 39 and the club cashed in its June clause to sign Federico Chiesa, adding elite off-ball running they lacked opposite Sadio Mané. The defence, however, still concedes transition chances (1.19 xGA per match vs top-eight sides). Luis Castro’s high line will drop points in the humid away fixtures at Khobar and Abha. Projected: 70–73 pts.
3. Third / AFC Spot: Al-Ahli
Matthijs de Ligt’s loan gives them a pressing-resistant centre-back and the €30 m purchase of Roberto Firmino supplies a false-9 link that unlocks winger Mahrez. A kind fixture list (no top-six opponent until Matchday 7) should keep them in the top three all year. Floor: 62 pts.
4. Fourth: Al-Ittihad
Benzema’s body language improved after the appointment of Laurent Blanc, but squad turnover (Fabinho plus three new centre-backs) means chemistry questions until October. They will finish closer to 58 pts and rely on the King’s Cup for Asian qualification.
5. Relegation Candidates
– Al-Okhdood: smallest budget (€9 m wages) and lowest xG created (0.81 per 90).
– Al-Raed: lost top scorer Karim El Berkaoui and have a 6,000-seat stadium that costs them marginal revenue.
– Al-Hazem: yo-yo club promoted via playoffs; xGA in Championship was 1.5 per match—numbers that balloon against SPL speed.
Golden Boot Pick
Aleksandar Mitrović led the league with 28 goals despite missing six matches. With Neymar drawing defensive attention and Al-Hilal creating 2.4 xG per match, expect Mitrović to edge Ronaldo 31-29 on the final day.
Breakout Star
Al-Ettifaq’s 18-year-old winger Majed Abdullah (no relation to the legend) averaged 0.48 xG+xA per 90 in the last eight matchdays under Steven Gerrard. If he starts, double-digit goal contributions are realistic.
Manager on the Hot Seat
Pitso Mosimane took Al-Ahli to third last season; anything lower triggers an expensive buy-out clause and fan pressure in Jeddah. Early cup elimination could shorten his leash before December.
Bottom-line Forecast
Expect Al-Hilal to clinch with three games left in April, setting up a possible unbeaten domestic season. Total goals will rise (2.92 per match) due to faster tempo and Video Assistant Referee rulings that stretch added time. For bettors, an over 3.0 goals line in matches involving the top four hit 58 % last season—value that should continue.
