With the regular League 2 season ticking down to its last four weekends, every point reshapes the chessboard at both ends of the table. Here are the scenarios and value bets worth tracking in the run-in, based on expected goals (xG) trends, six-match form and remaining schedules.
TOP-THREE AUTOMATIC PROMOTION
1. Stockport County – 77 pts | GD +31
Remaining fixtures: vs Sutton (H), vs Tranmere (A), vs Gillingham (H), vs Hartlepool (A)
Prediction: WIN three, DRAW one → 88 pts (champions).
Key stat: Brian Barry-Murphy’s side leads the division for big chances created (97) and has the joint-best defensive xG conceded in the last eight games (5.9).
2. Salford City – 71 pts | GD +23
Remaining: vs Barrow (A), vs Crewe (H), vs Colchester (H), vs Walsall (A)
Prediction: 2W-1D-1L → 84 pts (2nd).
Neil Wood’s squad depth should cope without injured play-maker Matt Smith; young striker Callum Hendry has averaged 0.66 xG per 90 since stepping in.
3. Mansfield Town – 70 pts | GD +26
Remaining: vs AFC Wimbledon (A), vs Carlisle (H), vs Bradford (A), vs Grimsby (H)
Prediction: 2W-2D → 84 pts (3rd on goal difference).
Nigel Clough’s side has kept a league-high 19 clean sheets; their risk-averse style limits defeat probability but draws could cost them the runners-up slot.
PLAY-OFF SCRAP (4th–7th)
Only five points separate 4th from 9th, but the underlying metrics flag four clubs most likely to last the distance:
Bradford City – 67 pts
• Elevation candidates: the Bantams’ rolling xG difference (+0.82 per game) is the best outside the top three and Andy Cook is still the division’s top scorer (25).
Crewe Alexandra – 63 pts
• Only League 2 side unbeaten in 2024 away fixtures (6-2-0); on-loan wing-back Rio Adebisi adds an extra 0.25 xG per match via overlapping runs.
Swindon Town & Doncaster Rovers – both 62 pts
• Swindon’s Scott Lindsey has switched to a 3-4-2-1 that funnels 46% of attacks through the left, a pattern Newport (one of their remaining opponents) struggles to defend (1.4 xG conceded from left-sided moves per game).
• Doncaster’s midfield press leads to league-high turnovers in the final third (244), but porous set-piece defending (12 goals conceded) makes them the most volatile qualifier.
PROJECTED FINAL ORDER: 4. Bradford (85) 5. Crewe (78) 6. Swindon (76) 7. Doncaster (73).
RELEGATION DOGFIGHT
Two spots remain open because already-doomed Sutton sit 14 points adrift. The metrics isolate three candidates separated by marginal fine margins:
18th Colchester Utd – 46 pts – Remaining SOS (strength of schedule) ranked 20th; face only one top-eight side. Prediction: 48 pts (safe).
19th Hartlepool Utd – 44 pts – Three of last four on the road, conceding first in 68% of away matches this season. Prediction: 47 pts (relegated on GD).
20th Barrow – 44 pts – Have switched to a five-at-the-back under caretaker David Dunn, trimming xGA from 1.6 to 1.1 in the last four. Prediction: 48 pts (safe).
21st Crawley Town – 43 pts – Darrell Clarke’s arrival sparked a blip (1.7 xG per game in last six), but must face both Stockport and Bradford. Prediction: 46 pts (relegated).
BETTING EDGES (odds参照22 Apr, Pinnacle)
• Stockport –1 AH vs Sutton @1.79 – Sutton have lost last six away by ≥2 goals when conceding first.
• Crewe to finish in top seven @2.25 – Implied 44%; model prices fair odds 1.75 (expected value +10%).
• Both teams to score in Swindon v Newport (Saturday) @1.68 – Occurred in 11 of Swindon’s 14 home matches versus bottom-half sides.
CONCLUSION
Expect Stockport to lift the title at Edgeley Park, Mansfield and Salford to cling to the other automatic berths, and Bradford to capitalise on experience to top the play-offs. At the bottom, Hartlepool’s atrocious road record and Crawley’s murderous run-in point toward the drop—unless a last-gasp swing in form or fortune rewrites the narrative that the numbers have already sketched out.
