With the 2024-25 European season entering its decisive stretch, Tuesday 22 April 2025 offers a concentrated dose of high-stakes football. Below are data-driven picks for the day’s standout fixtures, blending current form, injury lists and advanced metrics to highlight the most attractive betting angles.
1. UEFA Champions League – Quarter-final 2nd Leg
Real Madrid vs Arsenal (Santiago Bernabéu, 21:00 CEST)
First-leg score: 1-1 in North London. Madrid have won 11 of their last 12 home knock-out ties under Ancelotti, but Arsenal’s counter-press has improved 14 % since February. Expected-goins models give the Spanish side a 54 % win probability, yet the Gunners’ speed on the break keeps the “both teams to score” quote alive at 1.73. Bet: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS – 2.10.
2. UEFA Champions League – Quarter-final 2nd Leg
Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint-Germain (Signal Iduna Park, 21:00 CEST)
First-leg score: 2-2 in Paris. Dortmund’s five-match Bundesliga unbeaten run has lifted morale, while PSG remain without injured left-back Nuno Mendes. The German outfit averages 2.11 xGF at home in 2025; PSG concede 1.31 xGA away in the UCL. The market underrates a Black-and-Yellow win at 3.10. Bet: Dortmund to qualify – 2.75.
3. Championship – Relegation Six-pointer
Sheffield Wednesday vs Queens Park Rangers (Hillsborough, 19:45 BST)
Wednesday sit three points above the drop zone, but their 0.91 points-per-game at home is the division’s worst. QPR have taken seven points from the last nine under Martí Cifuentes. Model shows 39 % chance of draw; bookmakers price it 3.30. Bet: Draw no bet – QPR – 2.05.
4. Serie A – European Chase
AS Roma vs Bologna (Stadio Olimpico, 20:45 CEST)
Roma trail fourth-placed Bologna by two points. De Rossi has lifted Roma’s PPDA from 14.2 to 10.8, but Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 remains the league’s best non-top-three defense (0.92 xGA per match). With Zirkzee fit after a minor knock, the away side can frustrate the hosts. Bet: Bologna +0.5 Asian handicap – 1.85.
5. La Liga – Survival Thursday rehearsal
Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe (Vallecas, 19:00 CEST)
Both Madrid minnows hover two points above relegation. Rayo’s last four home matches produced only two goals; Getafe have failed to score in six of their last eight on the road. Under 2.0 goals is trading at 1.68, but the true probability is closer to 60 %. Bet: Under 2.0 goals – 1.68 (stake half-unit).
Long-shot accumulator (folds to 18.1):
Dortmund qualify + Roma-Bologna draw + Real Madrid-Arsenal BTTS + QPR DNB – 1 unit fun stake.
Stake sensibly, shop for closing-line value and enjoy the midweek drama.
