The 2024 Copa Sudamericana enters its knockout phase with the round of 16 draw finally set. Based on underlying xG numbers, travel burden, and recent form, here are the predictions that matter.
Group-stage surprises
Independiente Medellín topped Group B despite an average squad age of 23, while Goiás scraped through Group D with only one regulation win—yet their expected-goal difference was second-best among third-place finishers. Expect both narratives to revert: Medellín’s youth will struggle over two-legged ties, whereas Goiás’ defensive stability (0.78 xGA per 90) gives them a sleeper’s chance.
Bracket path analysis
Upper half: Defending champions Independiente del Valle face 2022 runners-up São Paulo. Independiente’s high press suffocated group opponents (PPDA 8.1), but São Paulo’s new double-pivot with Pablo Maia frees Luciano to attack half-spaces, tilting the tie 55-45 in favor of the Brazilians. Should São Paulo advance, they will meet the winner of LDU Quito v. Newell’s Old Boys. LDU’s altitude (2,850 m) is worth ~0.3 goals in simulations; combine that with Newell’s away record (one win in 12) and the Ecuadorians become slight favorites.
Lower half: Corinthians land the softest draw, opening against Universitario de Vinto, Bolivia’s first-ever qualifier. Even sans Renato Augusto, Corinthians’ deep轮换 policy keeps legs fresh; progression probability sits at 78 %. A quarter-final versus either Fortaleza or Boca Juniors awaits. Fortaleza’s Willy Órtiz has turned their 3-4-3 into a counter-pressing machine (league-leading 48 % of recoveries in final third), but Boca’s experience in crapauda atmospheres levels the field. Model says 50-50, with penalties looming.
Dark-horse ticket
Keep an eye on Millonarios. The Colombian side switched to a 4-2-3-1 under Alberto Gamero, allowing Juan Pablo Vargas to step into midfield, which unlocked Leonardo Castro (6 goals in 8). Their expected-tournament simulations have jumped from 4 % to 11 %, fourth-highest overall.
Final forecast
Monte Carlo run 10 000 times, adjusting for home advantage, player availability (Copa América call-ups) and travel distance (>3 000 km legs penalized 0.15 xG). Most frequent final: São Paulo v. Corinthians (22 %). Championship probabilities: Corinthians 19 %, São Paulo 17 %, LDU 12 %, Fortaleza 11 %, Millonarios 11 %.
Pick: Corinthians to edge a clássico final on penalties, ending their 12-year continental drought.
