As the 2024-25 Swiss Super League edges past the winter break, the title race looks increasingly like a two-horse duel between defending champions BSC Young Boys and resurgent FC Lugano, with a surprise surge from Basel’s re-vamped squad threatening to upset the established order.
Young Boys have lost only once at the Wankdorf since mid-September and their underlying numbers remain elite: 2.21 expected goals for per 90, 0.91 against, and the league’s deepest rotation after a quiet but smart January window. Raphaël Wicky’s side is odds-on (implied 55 %) to finish top even with the distraction of Europa League knock-outs.
Lugano sit three points behind but have the league’s most settled back five; no defense concedes fewer big chances. Their February schedule (three of four at home) offers a platform to close the gap, yet squad depth remains thin. Our model gives the Ticino club a 28 % shot at a first title since 1949.
Basel, written off in August after selling last season’s top scorer, have climbed to fourth thanks to a nine-match unbeaten run built on a cohort of U-21 talents. Adrian Knup’s pressing scheme (third-best PPDA) generates plenty of transition looks, but finishing variance could decide whether they finish second or sixth. We estimate a 12 % probability of an unlikely championship, far higher than bookmaker lines suggest.
Dark horses: St. Gallen’s away form (six wins on the spin) keeps them in the top-four picture, while Servette’s Europa Conference grind may cost them points domestically. Relegation is a two-team tussle: Yverdon’s xG deficit is the league’s worst (-0.77 per game) ahead of struggling Lausanne-Sport.
Bottom line: expect Young Boys to lift a sixth straight trophy come May, but keep an eye on Basel’s kids and a Lugano side that finally looks ready to scare the Bern giants until the final kick.
