With the 2024-25 League Two campaign kicking off on 10 August, the annual scramble for promotion and frantic fight against relegation is already taking shape. Data models that blend last season’s expected goals (xG), squad market value, and summer recruitment point to four clubs most likely to finish in the automatic-promotion slots: Stockport County, Milton Keynes Dons, Notts County, and AFC Wimbledon.
Stockport’s edge comes from retention. Dave Challinier has kept the core of the side that posted the division’s best xG difference (+28) in 2023-24, while adding rapid winger Isaac Olaofe on a permanent deal. Betting markets price the Hatters at 5-2 for the title, the shortest odds in the division, and Opta’s simulation gives them a 38 % chance of going straight up.
Milton Keynes Dons finished eighth last year despite the youngest average starting XI in the league (23.1 years). Mike Williamson’s high-press philosophy generated the second-most high-turnover shots (198) in League Two, and with experienced heads such as Alex Gilbey now supplemented by Scotland U-21 striker Tommy Conway on loan, the model projects a six-point swing that lifts them to second.
Notts County’s dramatic play-off final win at Wembley papered over defensive cracks—only three teams conceded more shots from inside the box. Head coach Stuart Maynard has addressed that by recruiting 6′ 5″ centre-back Aden Baldwin from Mansfield and installing a more conservative midfield double-pivot. Those tweaks move the Magpies’ predicted goals against from 63 to 50, enough to snag third.
AFC Wimbledon complete the top-four forecast. Johnnie Jackson’s switch to a 3-4-2-1 unlocked Ali Al-Hamadi (15 goals post-January), and the Irishman’s contacts in Premier League loan departments have already secured Chelsea teenager Leo Castledine and Liverpool full-back Calum Scanlon. Depth remains a worry, but the model still awards the Dons a 29 % probability of finishing in the top seven.
Behind them, expect another chaotic play-off race. Crewe Alexandra’s academy pipeline continues to gush—21-year-old Elliott Nevitt is coveted by Championship scouts—while Accrington Stanley’s budget constraints were eased by the sale of midfielder Seamus Conneely, allowing re-investment in speedy winger Josh Windass (yes, his younger brother). Both clubs are given a 45-50 % shot at the top seven, with Barrow, Gillingham, and newly promoted Chesterfield completing a tightly bunched mid-table cluster.
At the bottom, the early projections are brutal for four sides. Carlisle United’s relegation from League One left a threadbare squad; bookmakers make them 7-4 favourites to finish bottom, and the model agrees, assigning a 41 % relegation probability. The Cumbrians sold leading scorer Sam Lavelle to Derby and have replaced him with untested non-league striker Sam Fishburn, leaving them overly reliant on 34-year-old forward Joe Garner.
Swindon Town’s off-field chaos continues. Since the takeover by the obscure Clem Morfuni consortium, wage bills have been slashed and head coach Gavin Gunning works with the division’s smallest senior squad (19 professionals). The data flags Swindon for a 35 % drop risk, citing the second-worst xG ratio in 2023-24 and no keeper on the books with more than 20 League Two appearances.
Harrogate Town’s tiny budget and aging spine (average age 29.4) are projected to regress after three seasons of mid-table over-performance, inserting them in the drop zone alongside Carlisle and Swindon. The final relegation slot flips between Tranmere Rovers—who lost top-scorer Josh Hawkes to a knee injury in pre-season—and newly promoted Bromley, whose synthetic 3G pitch at Hayes Lane may prove a one-season novelty rather than a fortress.
Individual accolades? Al-Hamadi’s xG chain leads the golden-boot race at 11-2, narrowly ahead of Stockport’s Paddy Madden (13-2) and MK Dons’ Max Dean (15-2). Meanwhile, 18-year-old Stockport midfielder Callum Camps is the value pick for Player of the Year at 25-1, having led the division in progressive passes per 90 last term.
Of course, League Two’s beauty lies in its volatility—budgets are tight, weather is grim, and one red card or frozen pitch can tilt an entire season. But if analytics and recruitment patterns hold, expect Stockport to lift the trophy in early April, Wimbledon to celebrate a nostalgic return to the third tier, and Carlisle to face a humbling drop into non-league football.
