The 2024-25 Eredivisie season is shaping up to be another classic duel between traditional powerhouses Ajax and PSV, with early data suggesting the title will be decided by a margin of fewer than five points for the third consecutive year. According to Infostrada’s league projection model, PSV edges the forecast with 2.38 expected points per game (xPPG) to Ajax’s 2.31, thanks largely to a four-point buffer already banked before the winter break and a slightly softer remaining schedule weighted at 1.92 opponent strength versus Ajax’s 2.07.
Feyenoord, last season’s third-place finisher, is projected to finish 7–10 points adrift of the leaders, hampered by Europa League congestion and an injury list that has already cost them 0.19 xPPG since October. AZ Alkmaar and Twente round out the top-five simulation 78 % of the time, with Utrecht the most likely spoiler should either slip.
At the bottom, newly promoted Volendam and Roda JC are tipped for an immediate return to the Keuken Kampioen Divisie, collecting just 0.77 and 0.83 xPPG respectively. Sparta Rotterdam sits marginally above the drop zone, but their 29 % relegation probability triples if they sell key striker Bart Vriends in January.
Individual accolades are expected to follow the title race: PSV’s Johan Bakayoko leads the golden-boot forecast with 21.7 expected goals (xG), narrowly ahead of Ajax’s Brian Brobbey at 20.9. Meanwhile, 18-year-old Ajax midfielder Joran Vermeulen tops the assist model with 12.4 expected assists (xA), reflecting his advanced role in the revised 4-2-3-1 system under coach Maurice Steijn.
Crunching 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations while adjusting for market-value inflation, transfer activity, and historical performance curves, the model assigns PSV a 47 % title probability, Ajax 43 %, and the field a combined 10 %. Yet the single biggest swing factor remains the head-to-head classico in March at the Johan Cruyff Arena, where a home win would flip the probabilities to 54 % in Ajax’s favor overnight.
