Serie B Predictions: 2024–25 Season Forecast, Title Contenders & Relegation Battles
Italy’s second tier has never been tighter. With four relegation places, two automatic promotion spots, plus a chaotic eight-team playoff, every round feels like a cup final. Below is a data-driven look at how the 2024–25 Serie B table could finish, based on expected goals models, summer transfer spend, coaching continuity and injury records.
PREDICTED FINAL TABLE (1-20)
1. Parma – 78 pts
Fabio Pecchia kept the band together and added physicality in the air (CB Gianluca Di Chiara, 92 headed clearances in 23/24). The Crociati’s xG differential (+0.59 per game) was already elite; regression says they ride it to top spot.
2. Venezia – 76 pts (automatic promotion)
The wing-back system remains, and Joel Pohjanpalo’s 0.68 npxG/90 is Serie-B standout. Only worry: Europa-League-style travel congestion after Coppa Italia runs.
3. Como – 73 pts (playoff winners)
Cesc Fàbregas ball-progression, Patrick Cutrone’s fox-in-the-box instincts and new owners willing to spend €15 m in January give Como the deepest playoff squad.
4. Cremonese – 70 pts
Scoring goals won’t be the issue (Massimo Coda, 24 last year), but a 37-year-old defensive spine invites late-season fatigue.
5. Palermo – 68 pts
6. Sampdoria – 66 pts
Stuttered start under Andrea Pirlo costs them direct promotion, but a veteran playoff run squeezes them back into top flight via playoffs.
7. Brescia – 64 pts
8. Catanzaro – 62 pts
9. Südtirol – 58 pts
10. Modena – 56 pts
11. Cittadella – 54 pts
12. Reggiana – 52 pts
13. Ternana – 50 pts
14. Spezia – 49 pts
15. Ascoli – 46 pts
16. Frosinone – 44 pts
17. Pisa – 43 pts
18. Lecco – 38 pts (R)
19. Bari – 36 pts (R)
20. Feralpisalò – 30 pts (R)
KEY STORYLINES
Golden Boot Race
Massimo Coda (Cremonese) leads at 11-4, but keep an eye on Como’s Cutrone (9-1) and Venezia’s Pohjanpalo (10-1). All three take penalties and rank top-15 in non-penalty xG/90.
Relegation Shake-Up
Feralpisalò’s tiny budget (€5 m wage bill) makes immediate survival unlikely, while Lecco’s stadium limitations suppress revenue. Bari’s sale of top scorer Gilardino leaves them goal-shy; regression to the mean sends the Apulian giants down for the first time since 2012.
Breakout Talents
– Alessandro Dellavalle (CB, Venezia) – 6 ft 4, 89 percentile in aerial wins; Italy U-21.
– Giuseppe Ambrosino (AM, Palermo) – 0.35 xA/90 from half-spaces, linked with Napoli.
– Simone Magnaghi (LW, Reggiana) – 11 progressive carries per 90, elite acceleration.
Managerial Merry-Go-Round
Serie B averaged 0.86 sackings per club last season; expect at least six changes again. First on the hot-seat: Roberto Stellone (Frosinone) if they lose three of opening five.
Analytics Edge
Teams outperforming their xG by >12 goals historically regress by 70 % the following year (Spezia, Bari). Conversely, Venezia under-performed xP by 11 last season—the largest negative gap in the league—making them a prime bounce-back candidate.
BETTING NUGGETS (odds via Bet365)
– Como PROMOTION 4.50 (was 6.00 in July).
– Parma TOP-2 FINISH 2.75 (still value before Matchday 4).
– Catanzaro TOP-HALF 2.20 (coaching continuity + synthetic pitch edge).
Final Forecast
Parma’s squad depth and Venezia’s Europa-tested spine create a clear top two, while Como’s playoff polish book-ends three Lombardy sides heading to Serie A. Down below, traditional names Bari and Lecco swap places with minnows, proving once again that in Serie B, budget size matters less than squad chemistry and tactical identity.
