The 2024 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A enters its twelfth round with the title race tighter than a decade-old samba drum. Palmeiras sit two points clear of Botafogo at the summit, yet the underlying numbers suggest the gap should be wider: Abel Ferreira’s side leads the league in expected goal difference (+0.92 per 90) and has conceded the fewest big chances (11). Meanwhile, Botafogo’s early-season sparkle has faded—xG trend lines show a 19 % drop since round 6, and goalkeeper Gatito Fernández has faced 7.8 post-shot xG more than the goals he has actually allowed, hinting at regression ahead.
This weekend the spotlight falls on three fixtures where the market still lags behind the analytics.
Flamengo vs. Bahia – Saturday 18:00 BRT
Flamengo’s four-match winless run is noisy, but scratch the surface and their rolling xG differential remains +0.81. Bahia, flirting with relegation, has lost all five away matches when trailing at half-time. With Arrascaeta and de la Cruz restored to midfield, the algorithm gives Fla a 63 % win probability; the 1.75 price available is a 5 % edge versus our fair odds of 1.60.
São Paulo vs. Cruzeiro – Sunday 16:00 BRT
São Paulo’s defensive block ranks 2nd in passes per defensive action (PPDA 8.1), but Cruzeiro’s William has completed the most progressive carries in the league (142). Our Poisson sims churn out a 52 % chance of under 2.5 goals, yet the line is trading at 1.98—enough for a skinny play on the low-scoring script.
Athletico-PR vs. Palmeiras – Sunday 18:30 BRT
Palmeiras travel without suspended defender Murilo, and Athletico’s Arena da Baixada has been a house of horrors for the Verdão (W1 D3 L6 since 2019). Still, our Elo model makes Palmeiras marginal favorites (42 %), and the draw-no-bet price of 1.53 on the away side is value if you believe class trumps venue voodoo.
Long-shot flutter: Santos to beat Internacional at 3.40. The Peixe are winless in seven, but new manager Fábio Carille has switched to a 3-4-3 that’s generated 1.9 xGF in back-to-back matches. Internacional’s away xGA is 1.52 per game—worst among top-eight sides—so the model flags a 34 % win chance, well above the implied 29 %.
Banker accumulator: Palmeiras draw-no-bet + Flamengo win pays 2.64 and hits 46 % of the time in 10k Monte Carlo runs. Stake responsibly, and may the green and gold deliver.
