With the 2026 FIFA World Cup expanding to 48 teams, the race for qualification has never been more intense—or more unpredictable. As CONMEBOL enters its final four matchdays and UEFA’s groups tighten, six nations stand out as the most likely to clinch the remaining berths.
**South America’s Last Ticket**
Uruguay’s rocky start under new management has opened the door for Ecuador and Paraguay. Our model, which weighs home-form altitude advantage and recent xG trends, gives Paraguay a 57 % chance to finish fifth and book an inter-confederation playoff spot, where they would face the OFC winner—likely New Zealand. Ecuador, despite a three-point deduction appeal, still has a 62 % probability of direct qualification thanks to fixtures against Bolivia and Venezuela.
**Europe’s Playoff Labyrinth**
UEFA’s new 12-team playoff structure favors higher-seeded runners-up. Sweden, currently second in Group F, tops our simulations with a 68 % chance of progression; their rumored switch to a five-man back line has reduced big chances conceded by 0.7 per 90 since August. Watch out for Ukraine, whose September window in Poland yielded 2.4 xGF per match; they land in the playoff final 52 % of the time.
**Africa’s Dark Horse**
Algeria slipped to third in Group G, but a Soft Schedule Index that ranks remaining opponents’ away records places them as the continent’s best bet to overturn a deficit. Expect a decisive final-day win over Tanzania to lift the Desert Foxes into Pot 3 for the finals draw.
**Bold Call**
Paraguay beats New Zealand 2-1 in the inter-confederation playoff, while Sweden edges Ukraine on penalties to complete the 48-team lineup.
