José Mourinho’s AS Roma entertain Serie B visitors Pisa at the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday, seeking straightforward passage into the Coppa Italia last-16. Bookmakers tag the hosts as overwhelming favorites (home win ~1.35), but cup evenings in the capital have produced shocks before. Here is a detailed outlook on the encounter.
Team News
Roma are expected to rotate heavily while preserving spine quality. Mile Svilar will replace Rui Patrício in goal; Chris Smalling is unavailable, so Diego Llorente partners Bryan Cristante in a makeshift back three. Spinazzola should start at left-wing-back, allowing Nicola Zalewski a breather. In midfield, 19-year-old Edoardo Bove joins Mady Camara, freeing Lorenzo Pellegrini to operate just off the striker. Andrea Belotti is poised for a rare start, flanked by Stephan El Shaarawy and Ola Solbakken. Tammy Abraham and Paulo Dybala remain on the bench unless the tie tightens.
Pisa arrive in decent fettle, unbeaten in four league games under new coach Alberto Aquilani. They will line up in a proactive 4-3-3, trusting top-scorer Gaetano Masucci (6 goals) and the creative spark of Idrissa Touré. Centre-back partner Samuel Mráz is suspended, so 20-year-old Antonio Caracciolo steps in, a mismatch that Roma’s forwards will target from early on.
Tactical Key
Look for an early press from Pisa’s front three, hoping to force errors from Roma’s rotated midfield. If the visitors don’t nick the ball high, they could spend long spells in a mid-block, funneling play toward the flanks where Spinazzola and Celik overlap aggressively. Set-pieces represent Pisa’s clearest route to goal: Roma have conceded five times from corners already this term, and Ernesto Torregrossa’s aerial presence will test Llorente.
Expected Goals Model
Data simulations (based on shots, xGChain, and historical performance gaps between top-flight and second-tier sides) give Roma an average of 2.34 expected goals, Pisa 0.78. Multiplying finishing variance by 10,000 run-outs yields:
Roma win: 68 %
Draw (and potential ET): 20 %
Pisa upset: 12 %
Those numbers tighten if Pisa open the scoring; their win probability jumps to 32 % when leading after 30 minutes, underscoring the importance of Roma’s opening salvo.
Injury & Suspension Watch
Roma: Smalling (muscle), Kumbulla (ACL), Wijnaldum (foot).
Pisa: Mráz (suspended), Beruatto (doubtful), Moscardelli (long-term).
Betting Angles (Value Plays)
1. Roma -1 Asian handicap @1.80 – pays if they win by two, refunds if by one.
2. Andrea Belotti first goalscorer @5.00 – the Italian striker averages 0.62 xG/90 when starting in cup ties over the last three years.
3. Both teams to score: NO @1.90 – aligns with model showing Pisa struggle to land shots on target away from Arena Garibaldi.
Predicted Line-ups
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Mancini, Llorente, Ibáñez; Celik, Camara, Bove, Spinazzola; Pellegrini, El Shaarawy; Belotti.
Pisa (4-3-3): Perilli; Birindelli, Caracciolo, Canestrelli, Beruatto; Nagy, Touré, Marin; Masucci, Torregrossa, Sibilli.
Score Prediction
Roma’s superior individual quality and cup pedigree should shine through despite rotation. Expect a purposeful but controlled performance, with Belotti breaking the deadlock before half-time and Pellegrini sealing it late on.
Final call: Roma 3-0 Pisa
