The 2024-25 Poland Ekstraklasa campaign has reached the hinge-point where every dropped point feels like a hammer blow, and the analytics team at EkstraInsight sees a three-way scrap that could go to the final breath. Below is our data-driven prediction for how the table will finish, plus the story lines you should watch between now and May.
1. Lech Poznań (Projected 1st, 69 pts)
Form: 5W-1D-1L since the winter break
Key Stat: Non-penalty xG differential +0.78 per 90, best in the league
Prediction: The Mikel Arruabarrena rebuild has clicked. New pressing triggers and a full season from combo-forward Filip Marchwiński give Lech just enough balance to pip the pack. Their last five fixtures are middling sides, so six wins from nine is a realistic par. Title probability: 38 %.
2. Raków Częstochowa (Projected 2nd, 68 pts)
Form: Undefeated in eleven but four draws in that stretch
Key Stat: League-best deep-completion allowed (7.1 per 90)
Prediction: Dawid Drachal’s emergence as a free 8 adds vertical thrust, yet the attack still ranks 5th for big chances created. Expect Raków to stay stingy, but two away matches at Lech and Legia will decide silverware. Title probability: 34 %.
3. Legia Warsaw (Projected 3rd, 65 pts)
Form: Scored 14 in last four after switching to 3-4-3
Key Stat: 2.27 goals per game since December, up from 1.4
Prediction: Kosta Runjaić’s side is streaky. If wing-backs Josué and Ribeiro stay fit the ceiling is top-two, but their rolling xGA over the last month is 9th. A brutal run-in (Raków, Lech, Pogoń away) tilts the model toward third. Title probability: 22 %.
4. Jagiellonia Białystok (Projected 4th, 59 pts)
Key Injuries: Midfield metronome Taras Romanczuk (ankle, 4 weeks)
Prediction: Without Romanczuk’s tempo control the press collapses; the model sees a 0.15 xG swing per match. They will still bully lesser sides at Białystok’s artificial turf, yet Europa Conference qualification is the new ceiling.
Relegation Fight
Bottom three today—ŁKS Łódź, Ruch Chorzów and Piast Gliwice—are separated by two points. Our Monte Carlo sims give ŁKS only a 17 % chance of survival after a league-worst set-piece record (-6 goals from corners). Expect Ruch’s loan signing of striker Ilya Shkurin to be the difference; Piast’s veteran back line is too slow for August’s sprint.
Bold Calls for Match-day 28-30
• Lech 2-1 Legia: set-piece header by Barry Douglas in 87’ keeps Poznań top.
• Raków 1-0 Pogoń: 19-year-old keeper Kacper Trelowski saves stoppage-time pen.
• Cracovia 3-2 Śląsk: over 3.5 goals lands at 3.10 odds as both sides chase points.
Betting Value (odds from 12 Mar.)
Raków to win outright @ 4.50 offers an edge if you believe draws undo Lech. For accumulator lovers, Lech and Raków double chance in rounds 29-30 pays 1.72 and has hit 81 % in our sim.
Final Word
The Ekstraklasa has never been tighter at the summit; the difference could be one dodgy offside VAR call or a Marchwiński wonder strike. Whatever happens, polish your sofa: Poland’s spring football is must-watch theatre.
