The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is entering its decisive phase, and the latest round of qualifiers has thrown up more twists than a prime-time thriller. With 48 berths up for grabs for the first time ever, the expanded format has not reduced the drama—it has simply widened the battlefield. Here are the key predictions as confederations race toward the finish line.
1. South America – Uruguay to edge Chile for the last automatic spot
After Brazil and Argentina locked up their places months ago, attention turns to the scrap for the remaining two automatic slots and the intercontinental playoff berth. Uruguay’s youthful midfield, led by Federico Valverde and Manuel Ugarte, has rediscovered the bite that characterized their golden years. Their final qualifier against already-eliminated Peru in Montevideo is winnable, while Chile must travel to inhospitable La Paz to face Bolivia at altitude. Expect Uruguay’s goal difference to be the tiebreaker that sends them through, leaving Chile to test their luck in the playoff.
2. Europe – Sweden to pip Norway in Group F decider
The Nordic neighbors meet in Solna on the last matchday with only one automatic qualification place still available. Norway’s reliance on Erling Haaland has become predictable; Sweden’s collective press under manager Jon Dahl Tomasson has yielded the tournament’s best defensive record in the group stages. A 1-0 victory courtesy of Viktor Gyökeres’s late counter is the forecast, sending the Swedes to their eighth straight World Cup and forcing Norway into the treacherous UEFA playoff path.
3. Africa – Nigeria to survive “Group of Death” scare
Morocco may have cruised, but Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa have traded blows in a section where no team has been able to string together more than two consecutive wins. Victor Osimhen’s return from injury coincides with the Super Eagles’ final home fixture against already-qualified Morocco, a psychological boost even if the Atlas Lions rotate heavily. A draw, combined with Ghana dropping points away to Rwanda, will see Nigeria sneak through on head-to-head record.
4. Asia – Jordan to shock Australia in playoff final
Australia’s switch to the Asian confederation has made them perennial contenders, but their aging spine—Mat Ryan (32), Aaron Mooy (34) and Jamie Maclaren (31)—struggles against rapid transitions. Jordan, spearheaded by Musa Al-Taamari’s dribbling wizardry, has already defeated South Korea and Saudi Arabia in this campaign. In a single-leg playoff final in Doha, extra-time heroics from Al-Taamari will propel Jordan to their first-ever World Cup, triggering jubilant scenes in Amman.
5. Concacaf – Costa Rica to edge Honduras on last-gasp goal
The region’s fourth automatic place is effectively a two-horse race. Costa Rica’s resurgence under youthful coach Claudio Vivas has seen them climb the octagonal table at the perfect time. Keylor Navas may be 37, but his penalty-save expertise remains unrivaled. When the two sides meet in San José on the final night, a 94th-minute header from 19-year-old Álvaro Santos—grandson of 1990 World Cup hero Juan Cayasso—will seal a 2-1 victory and send Los Ticos to their sixth World Cup.
6. Intercontinental playoffs – New Zealand to defeat Chile
The Oceania winner meets the fifth-placed South American side in a neutral-site, single-match showdown. New Zealand’s defensive block, orchestrated by Winston Reid and backed by Brighton’s Matt Garbett in midfield, is notoriously hard to break down. Chile’s lack of cutting edge beyond Alexis Sánchez, now 35, will prove costly. A 0-0 full-time scoreline will end with New Zealand prevailing 5-4 on penalties, completing a remarkable underdog story and setting up a group-stage clash against England, Senegal and the United States in 2026.
Bottom line: While traditional powerhouses still dominate the headlines, the expanded format has created new pathways for emerging nations. Expect at least three debutants—Jordan, Uzbekistan and Guinea—to make their first World Cup appearance, proving that the global game’s middle class is finally closing the gap on the elite.
