Saturday’s late Bundesliga fixture at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei brings together two sides whose seasons have followed opposite trajectories: Union Berlin, still fighting for survival after a winter of discontent, and RB Leipzig, who are quietly climbing toward another top-four finish after a shaky start. With only four match-days left after this weekend, both clubs have clear but contrasting objectives, making the three points on offer arguably more valuable to the hosts than the visitors.
Union enter the match in 14th place, just two points above the automatic relegation spots. Their once-feared home fortress has surrendered 21 goals in 12 league games in 2024, and Urs Fischer’s departure in November has yet to yield the desired bounce under interim boss Marco Grote. A spirited 1-1 draw at Augsburg last week offered brief encouragement, but defensive errors remain endemic: Union have conceded the first goal in eight of their last ten Bundesliga outings. Key striker Kevin Behrens is suspended after his fifth yellow card, while central defender Robin Knoche is rated doubtful with a thigh strain. Without Behrens’s aerial threat, Union will lean heavily on Sheraldo Becker’s pace on the break and the creativity of newly fit playmaker Rani Khedira to spark something from wide areas.
Leipzig, meanwhile, arrive fresh off a 3-0 statement win over Wolfsburg that snapped a two-game league skid and kept them level on points with third-place Dortmund. Marco Rose’s side has been the division’s most clinical counter-attacking unit since January, averaging 2.14 goals per match across all competitions. The return of Dani Olmo has added vertical thrust between the lines, while Xavi Simons continues to enjoy a free role that exploits half-spaces Union’s flat back-five often leave vacant. Only Real Madrid (10) have scored more headed goals in Europe’s top-five leagues this season than Leipzig (9), a stat that looms large against Union’s zonal marking on set pieces. Rose has no fresh injury concerns; Amadou Haidara serves the final match of his ban, but Nicolas Seiwald has deputized capably.
Tactical plot lines will revolve around Union’s ability to compress space in central corridors. Expect Grote to deploy a 5-3-2 that morphs into 3-5-2 in possession, instructing wing-backs Juranovic and Roussillon to step aggressively onto Leipzig’s advanced full-backs. The risk is that Leipzig’s fluid 4-2-2-2 can overload the last line with diagonal runs from Lois Openda and Benjamin Šeško, forcing Union’s outside centre-backs to choose between stepping out and maintaining the back-five screen. If Union sit too deep, Simons and Olmo will collect second balls 20 metres from goal; if they push too high, Rose’s side possesses the pace to punish turnovers within seconds.
Recent history also favours the Saxons: Leipzig have won four of the last five competitive meetings, including a 3-0 rout in the reverse fixture. Union’s last home victory over the Red Bulls dates back to January 2021, before supporters were shut out of stadiums. Psychology matters at this stage of the campaign, and Leipzig’s superior squad depth should tell inside the final quarter of an hour.
Betting markets opened with Leipzig -0.75 on the Asian handicap and have since moved to -1.0, reflecting steady money on the visitors. Expected goals models project 1.8-2.0 for Leipzig against 0.9-1.1 for Union, aligning with FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings that give Rose’s men a 58 % chance of victory. A low-card affair is also likely: Union average the fewest fouls per game in the league, while Leipzig’s possession-dominant style rarely drags the referee into the spotlight.
Prediction: RB Leipzig to win 2-1. Union will summon the intensity their precarious table position demands and snag a consolation through Becker’s counter, but Olmo’s decisive strike between 60’-75’ should seal a fourth straight away triumph for the Red Bulls and deepen Union’s relegation fears ahead of a daunting final stretch.
