With the 2024-25 2. Bundesliga campaign reaching its winter break, the promotion scrap and relegation dogfight are both tighter than ever. Hamburger SV have lived up to their billing as market leaders (7/2 pre-season) and sit top on 38 points, yet only three points separate the top five. Below we analyse the key metrics, injury updates and remaining schedules to update our Bundesliga 2 predictions.
Who seals automatic promotion?
1. Hamburger SV – despite chronic playoff heartbreak, Hannes Wolf’s squad depth (xG diff +0.63 per match) and the return of captain Sebastian Schonlau from ankle surgery tip the scales. Win expectancy model: 78 % for top-two finish.
2. 1. FC Köln – the relegated side’s 30 % goal share from set pieces is league-best, and Davie Selke’s aerial dominance (4.1 duels won p90) keeps them in contention even if Florian Kainz departs for AFCON. Probability: 72 %.
3. Fortuna Düsseldorf – no Daniel Ginczek (knee) until March, but 19-year-old prodigy Younes Drissi has already matched Ginczek’s xG contribution. Fortuna’s closing run (three of last five at Merkur Spiel-Arena) gives them a 55 % top-two chance, drifting only if defensive errors persist.
Dark horses
Hertha BSC’s payroll remains inflated, yet Pál Dárdai’s shift to a back-three has trimmed xGA from 1.71 to 1.22 since Matchday 10. Our projection now gives Berlin a 38 % top-six probability, up from 21 % in August. Meanwhile, SC Paderborn’s press-heavy system tops the league in high turnovers (6.1 p90); with a soft final fixture list (avg opponent 11.3 table rank) they could sneak into third at 9/1 odds.
Relegation forecast
Hannover 96 sold their top scorer after Matchday 8 and have created the fewest big chances (17) in the division; model assigns 42 % relegation odds. 1. FC Magdeburg’s away form (0.57 pts p90) and VfL Osnabrück’s injury crisis (nine squad players out) each carry 35 % risk, while Eintracht Braunschweig (31 %) need swift resolution of their xGA under-performance to avoid the drop.
Best bets for matchday 20
– Hamburg vs Kaiserslautern: Over 2.5 goals at 8/13 – Hamburg scored 2+ in 11/12 home matches.
– Elversberg vs Wehen Wiesbaden: Both teams to score NO at 11/10 – Elversberg have failed to score in four of five against bottom-half sides.
– Cologne vs Hannover: Cologne -1 Asian handicap at 6/5 – Hannover have lost by 2+ in four of six road defeats.
Expect the top two spots to stay above 60 points, while the play-off berth may require as few as 56 this year due to an expanded mid-table. Whatever unfolds, 2. Bundesliga’s 2024-25 climax promises another goal-laden thriller from German football’s most unpredictable tier.
