The last ten-game sprint of the 2024-25 League Two season has boiled down to one sentence: almost everyone has something left to play for. Bookmakers still list Stockport County as odds-on champions, but the data models we run every week no longer see the title race as a one-horse affair. Here is a concise forecast of the three questions still keeping away fans refreshing their phones at red lights.
1. Automatic-promotion dogfight
Current gap between 1st and 4th: five points.
Remaining strength-of-schedule (average opponent position):
– Stockport 11.4
– Barrow 13.2
– Mansfield 14.6
– Crewe 18.1
The model projects Stockport to finish on 84-86 points, but injury-time regression hits hard when squad depth is tested in April. The same algorithm gives Mansfield a 58 % chance to overtake thanks to a softer closing slate that features three of the bottom seven. Expect a last-day swing unless Stockport wins at Gillingham on 26 April.
2. Relegation quicksand
Colchester’s seven-point cushion is the thinnest in years. Underlying expected goals (xG) since January rank them 22nd, and four of their last five matches are against teams chasing at least a playoff berth. The survival probabilities read:
– Colchester 62 %
– Sutton 48 %
– Hartlepool 44 %
– Rochdale 38 %
A head-to-head between Sutton and Hartlepool on the penultimate weekend will function as a coin-flip shoot-out; a draw drags both toward the drop.
3. Playoff roulette
Positions 5-10 are separated by four points. Swindon’s attacking efficiency has receded four months in a row, so the wildcard entry could come from either Tranmere—whose set-piece output ranks league-best—or surprise package Walsall, unbeaten in ten. Simulations give Tranmere a 65 % chance to finish top seven, compared with Swindon’s 55 %. Watch for goal-difference volatility; six teams there are within plus-minus four.
Key metrics used
– Elo ratings updated after every fixture
– Player availability index (injuries + suspensions)
– Travel distance vs. recovery time (introduced this season)
– Rolling xG form weighted 40 % toward the last eight matches
Bottom-line forecast
Champion: Mansfield (42 %), Stockport (38 %), Barrow (20 %)
Relegated pair: Rochdale + Sutton
Playoff winner (from Wembley): Tranmere
Bookmark this page—when the whistle blows on 3 May, at least two of the above sentences will look either prophetic or foolish, but that is exactly why League Two finishes inside the English pyramid remain impossible to ignore.
