The oldest knockout tournament in world football enters its 143rd edition this weekend, and the magic of the FA Cup is already flickering through every non-league clubhouse from Maidstone to Macclesfield. Yet beneath the romance lies a cold, data-driven reality: since 2010 only three clubs outside the “Big Six” have reached the final, and none have lifted the trophy. With that backdrop, we crunch the numbers, the narratives and the November weather forecasts to map out the most likely road to Wembley.
Quarter-final bracket (probability %)
Manchester City 34
Arsenal 22
Liverpool 18
Manchester United 12
Newcastle 5
Brighton 4
Chelsea 3
Field (32 remaining teams) 2
Why City remain favourites
Pep Guardiola’s side have effectively turned the FA Cup into an extended training drill: 25 wins in their last 27 ties, xG differential of +2.1 per 90, and a squad so deep that Kalvin Phillips started at centre-back in the last round. The draw has also been kind: their hypothetical path—Swansea (A), Wolves (H), Fulham (H), Arsenal (N)—carries a 69 % cumulative progression chance per Opta’s proprietary model.
Arsenal’s sneaky edge
Mikel Arteta is yet to lift a domestic pot as manager, and the Gunners’ early Europa League exit funnels all resources toward ending the 20-year FA Cup drought. Bukayo Saka’s 8 progressive carries per 90 leads the field, while David Raya’s sweeping range adds an extra defender against lower-block sides. The only red flag: a potential fourth-round trip to the Tony Pulis-managed Stoke cold zone, where the expected-conditions index drops by 12 % for technical sides.
Liverpool’s fixture tornado
Jürgen Klopp’s last dance at Anfield could be galvanising, but the calendar is brutal: if they beat Everton in the third round, a replay-free run would still require eight matches in 42 days before the European quarter-finals. Mohamed Salah’s AFCON departure in January removes 0.72 non-penalty xG per 90 from the attack, shrinking their Simulated Trophy Yield from 25 % to 18 % overnight.
Giant-killer index
Using historical shock data (tier difference ≥ 2), weather (wind > 25 km/h) and away-travel distance (> 300 km), we isolated three potential banana skins:
• Wrexham v. Crystal Palace (14 % upset odds)
• Northampton v. Chelsea (11 %)
• Barrow v. Bournemouth (9 %)
Final forecast
Monte Carlo run of 100 000 seasons, refreshed after every live draw, converges on a Manchester derby at Wembley on 25 May 2024. City defeat United 2-1, with Phil Foden’s outside-box dagger in the 78th minute sealing back-to-back cups and keeping the first domestic quadruple dream alive. Probability of that exact outcome: 6.4 %.
Bet responsibly, wear a coat, and remember—the FA Cup laughs at spreadsheets until the 93rd minute.
