The Romania Liga 1 title fight intensifies this weekend when defending champions CFR Cluj host resurgent Universitatea Craiova at Dr. Constantin Rădulescu Stadium. With five match-days remaining, CFR sit two points clear of their guests; three points here could open a commanding gap, while a Craiova victory would flip the table on head-to-head advantage.
Current form favors the hosts: CFR have won eight of their last ten league outings, conceding just four goals, while Craiova have dropped points in three of their previous five away fixtures. Dan Petrescu’s side also boast the league’s stingiest defense (0.78 goals against per 90), anchored by veteran captain Mário Camora and in-form goalkeeper Simone Scuffet.
Craiova’s hopes hinge on prolific striker Elvir Koljić, whose 13 goals this season account for 34 % of the visitors’ haul. However, the 30-year-old has not scored in 260 minutes versus CFR’s deep block, and Mateo Sušić’s man-marking role is likely to stifle him again. Midfield dynamo Alexandru Cicâldău remains suspended after last week’s red card, thinning Mirel Rădoi’s options in transition.
Expected XIs
CFR Cluj (5-3-2): Scuffet – Camora, Burcă, Graovac, Rodríguez, Sušić – Boateng, Păun, – Deac – Debeljuh, Petrila
Universitatea Craiova (4-2-3-1): Luka – Vlădoiu, Constantin, Ilie, Bancu – Săpunaru, Găman – Ivan, Screciu, Bîrligea – Koljić
Data model (xG-adjusted Elo) gives CFR a 52 % win probability, Craiova 24 %, and the draw 24 %. The market has converged on a fair line of CFR -0.50, but deeper simulations suggest value on the home side at odds above 1.98, especially if Craiova chase a winner late and leave space for CFR’s lethal counters.
Score projection: CFR Cluj 2–1 Universitatea Craiova – a hard-fought victory that edges the Railwaymen toward a record-extending sixth consecutive Romanian crown.
