Florence braces for a mouth-watering Serie A clash on Sunday evening as Fiorentina welcome Lazio to the Stadio Artemio Franchi, with both sides desperate to tighten their grip on European qualification places. Vincenzo Italiano’s men have lost only once in their last eight league outings, while Maurizio Sarri’s Eagles arrive on a three-match winning streak across all competitions. The recent head-to-head record is tight: each of the last five league meetings has produced fewer than three goals, and the sides drew 1-1 in Rome back in October.
Key to the contest will be the midfield battle. Fiorentina’s Rolando Mandragora and Alfred Duncan have mastered Italiano’s high-tempo press, ranking third in the division for interceptions per 90 over the past month. Opposite them, Lazio’s Sergej Milinković-Savić has rediscovered his box-to-box swagger with two goals in four games, but the visitors remain vulnerable when the Serbian is forced to drop deeper. If Duncan can shackle him early, Fiorentina can funnel attacks wide, overlapping captain Cristiano Biraghi, who already has five assists this campaign.
In attack, the Viola welcome back leading scorer Luka Jović after a minor thigh issue. The Serbian’s aerial strength is critical: Fiorentina have scored a league-high 22 headed goals since the start of last season. Lazio’s otherwise stingy defence, marshalled by Alessio Romagnoli, has shipped four set-piece goals in its last six matches, suggesting space for the hosts to exploit. On the flip side, Ciro Immobile netted a brace last weekend against Spezia and has historically tormented Fiorentina with nine goals in 14 appearances, so Nikola Milenković must resist the high line that has twice caught the Viola flat this year.
Expected line-ups
Fiorentina (4-3-3): Terracciano; Dodô, Milenković, Igor, Biraghi; Mandragora, Amrabat, Duncan; González, Jović, Kouamé.
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel; Lazzari, Casale, Romagnoli, Marušić; Milinković-Savić, Cataldi, Luis Alberto; Felipe Anderson, Immobile, Zaccagni.
Infirmary notes
Fiorentina are without the suspended Sofyan Amrabat (yellow-card accumulation) and injured defender Luca Ranieri. Lazio list only long-term absentee Mattia Zaccagni as doubtful, though captain Immobile was rested mid-week and should start fresh.
Match prediction
With Jović restored, home advantage in front of a raucous Franchi, and Lazio’s occasional softness against crosses, the data model gives Fiorentina a 47% probability of victory. Draw sits at 28%, Lazio win at 25%. Expect a cagey opening, but the Viola’s second-half intensity—seven of their last nine goals have come after the 60’ mark—should tilt the balance. Scoreline: Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio; Jović to break the deadlock from a corner situation before González seals it late, Immobile snatching a consolation for the visitors.
