The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is already humming beneath the surface, and the expanded 48-team tournament promises more surprises than ever. Here are data-driven, gut-checked predictions for how each confederation’s qualifiers will unfold.
1. CONMEBOL – Brazil bounce-back, Uruguay dark horses
After a quarter-final exit in 2022, Brazil re-arm with Endrick and a refreshed midfield. Expect them to top the single-table round-robin, edging Argentina on goal difference. Uruguay, rebuilt around Valverde and a resurgent Luis Suárez in the “last dance” role, snatch the second automatic spot. Ecuador’s depth issues send them to the inter-confederation playoff, where they eliminate an Asian side.
2. UEFA – The rise of the “second tier”
Fifty-five teams, 16 automatic slots. France and England cruise, but the story is Portugal slipping to playoff peril after a shock home defeat to Slovenia. Ukraine, fueled by a generation that grew up in exile academies, edge Italy in a tense playoff final in Warsaw. Norway, propelled by Haaland’s 14-goal qualifying campaign, finish second in their group and end a 28-year World Cup absence.
3. CAF – Senegal’s dynasty, Nigeria’s heartbreak
Senegal’s Sadio Mané–less attack still averages 2.4 goals per game; they win Group B undefeated. Nigeria finish level on points with South Africa, lose the head-to-head, and fall into a playoff where they are stunned by Ivory Coast’s 19-year-old striker, Amad Diallo, in the 119th minute. Morocco, looking to repeat their 2022 magic, drop points in away trips to Zambia but ultimately qualify as group winners.
4. AFC – South Korea and Australia lead, Saudi Arabia stumble
With Son Heung-min moving into a free-roaming No. 10 role, South Korea score 24 goals in the final round, the most in AFC history. Australia’s switch to a 3-4-3 unleashes Celtic’s Harry Kewell-prodigy winger, who nets eight times. Saudi Arabia, distracted by a winter-to-summer league calendar shift, finish fourth and lose an inter-confederation playoff to Colombia on penalties.
5. CONCACAF – USA top, Mexico survive drama
Hosting 2026 means the U.S. are automatically qualified, but they still enter qualifiers to gain competitive rhythm. A youthful B-team tops the octagonal, while Mexico scrape through on the final matchday thanks to a 92nd-minute goal by Santiago Giménez in Tegucigalpa. Canada, missing Alphonso Davies for three months, drop to the playoff and comfortably defeat New Zealand.
6. OFC – New Zealand, then who?
The All Whites sweep the eight-team Pacific mini-tournament, scoring 22 goals and conceding once. The inter-confederation playoff slot comes down to a Solomon Islands-Fiji showdown, where Fiji’s 16-year-old phenom scores a hat-trick to send the island nation to its first-ever World Cup playoff—only to fall to Ecuador.
Wildcard prediction: The inter-confederation playoffs will feature Ecuador, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, and Fiji. Ecuador and Ukraine advance, completing a 48-team field that includes four debutants: Ukraine, Fiji, Kazakhstan, and Guinea.
Mark these picks now; the qualifiers kick off in just nine months, and the chaos will be here before we know it.
