With the Egypt Premier League now ten match-days old, the numbers point to a familiar ending: Al Ahly lifting the trophy for the fourth straight season. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI model gives the Red Devils a 71 % probability of finishing top, ahead of closest challengers Zamalek (19 %) and Pyramids (8 %). The underlying metrics support the forecast—Ahly lead the league in expected goals (xG) difference (+0.92 per 90), have the deepest bench in the competition, and, crucially, have already navigated the bulk of their away derbies without defeat.
Zamalek’s title odds have lengthened after dropping points in two of their last three home games. New coach Juan Carlos Osorio is implementing a high-press system, but the squad’s average age (28.3 years, the oldest in the top half) raises questions about sustainability once the African Champions League group stage begins in February. Pyramids remain the wild card; their winter recruitment drive landed Ivory Coast striker Yohan Boli, whose six non-penalty goals since early December have added 4.2 points to the club’s expected tally. If the investment-backed side can tighten a league-worst aerial-duel success rate (41 %), their projection rises to a 1-in-5 shot.
Down the table, relegation is shaping up as a four-way fight. Smouha’s 0.71 points-per-game pace puts them on 31 projected points, the historical survival line, but a brutal run-in featuring Ahly, Zamalek and Pyramids in the final six rounds leaves them 55 % likely to go down. Pharco and National Bank are marginally safer thanks to superior goalkeeping—both keepers rank top-five in post-shot xG minus goals allowed.
Bottom line: unless a shock mid-season exodus hits Ahly’s squad, expect the Cairo giant to wrap up the title by Match-day 28, leaving Zamalek and Pyramids to contest the second Champions League berth on the final weekend.
