Wolfsburg welcome Heidenheim to the Volkswagen Arena on Saturday aiming to bounce back from last week’s away defeat and reinforce their push for a top-half finish. Niko Kovač’s side have been solid at home this season, averaging 1.8 goals per game in front of their own fans, while Heidenheim arrive in Lower Saxony still searching for a first road win since late February.
The Wolves’ expected-goals trend underlines their attacking depth: Jonas Wind, Lukas Nmecha and the in-form Patrick Wimmer have combined for 11 big chances in the last five fixtures. With Maximilian Arnold dictating tempo and the back four finally settled—three clean sheets in the last four home outings—Wolfsburg look balanced and confident.
Heidenheim, promoted last summer, have exceeded expectations but remain vulnerable when pressed high. Frank Schmidt’s 4-1-2-3 morphs into a 5-4-1 without the ball, yet the central channel between the double pivot and back line has been repeatedly exposed by quick vertical passes. Tim Kleindienst’s aerial threat (nine headed goals in all competitions) keeps them alive on set pieces, but on the road they have conceded first in six of their last seven.
Team news favors the hosts: Sebastiaan Bornauw returns from suspension, giving Kovač a full-strength defense, whereas Heidenheim will again miss left-back Lennard Maloney and creative midfielder Jan-Niklas Beste, both integral to their build-up.
Opta’s model gives Wolfsburg a 52 % win probability, with the market hovering around 1.90 for a home victory. A narrow 2-1 scoreline appears the most likely outcome: Wolfsburg’s early pressure forces an opener inside 25 minutes, Heidenheim pull one back late via a set piece, but the Wolves close out the game on the counter in stoppage time. Expect over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, yet the three points should stay in Wolfsburg.
