San José—As 2025 unfolds, Costa Rica is expected to outperform regional peers with projected GDP growth of 3.8 %, driven by a 12 % surge in service exports, especially medical devices and eco-tourism. Analysts point to three catalysts: record-high foreign direct investment in green data centers, a 20 % expansion of renewable generation, and continued fiscal discipline that trims the deficit to 3 % of GDP.
On the climate front, the first seasonal forecast issued by the National Meteorological Institute predicts a 70 % chance of below-average rainfall on the Pacific slope, raising drought concerns for Guanacaste’s agricultural belt. Coffee growers are advised to adopt drought-resistant varieties, while hydroelectric operators may need to draw down reservoir reserves earlier than usual.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank’s monthly bulletin hints at a gradual easing cycle beginning in September if inflation converges to the 4 % target. Currency traders are pricing in a 4 % depreciation of the colón against the dollar by year-end, although strong remittance flows could offset external pressures.
In short, Costa Rica’s 2025 narrative is one of cautious optimism: resilient growth paired with an urgent call for adaptive water management and diversified exports.
