The 2023-24 2. Bundesliga season enters its final stretch with the promotion battle tighter than a drum and the relegation fight just as fierce. Here are our data-driven predictions for how the table will finish on 19 May.
Promotion Race
1. FC St. Pauli – 67 pts
The Kiezkicker have the league’s best expected-goals difference (+24) and the deepest squad. Win their last three fixtures (two at home) and the title is theirs.
2. Holstein Kiel – 65 pts
The Storks’ high press is devastating against tired legs. A tricky trip to Hamburg is offset by a friendly calendar elsewhere; a late win at home to Fortuna on Matchday 34 seals automatic promotion.
3. Fortuna Düsseldorf – 64 pts (play-off)
Daniel Thioune’s side boast the division’s top scorer, Rouwen Hennings (21 goals). They stumble only once, in Kiel, but still earn the play-off spot against the Bundesliga’s 16th-placed team—whom they beat over two legs.
Relegation Scrap
16. Hansa Rostock – 33 pts (survive via play-off)
The Ostseestadion factor matters. Hansa take four points from the last nine, nudging ahead of Kaiserslautern on goal difference, then beat Wehen Wiesbaden in the two-legged play-off.
17. 1. FC Kaiserslautern – 32 pts
Four draws in the run-in prove costly. A final-day equaliser against already-relegated Osnabrück is not enough.
18. VfL Osnabrück – 26 pts
Worst defence (62 goals conceded) and the youngest squad in the league are punished; they go down with five matches to spare.
Dark Horses & Falling Stars
Greuther Fürth’s xG under-performance (–13) corrects too late; they finish 7th. Schalke’s post-winter coaching change stabilises form just enough for 8th, but the Königsblauen miss the top three on goal difference. Karlsruhe’s sell-off of top talent in January costs them a play-off berth; they end 9th.
Bottom-line forecast: St. Pauli celebrate a long-awaited return to the top flight, Kiel join them, and the 2. Bundesliga retains its reputation as Europe’s most unpredictable second tier—until next season’s crystal ball comes out.
