With the 2024 Chinese Super League season kicking off in early March, analysts are split on whether Shanghai Port can replicate last year’s dominant run. Despite losing veteran striker Wu Lei to a lucrative move to the Middle East, Port reinforced the squad with two high-profile Brazilians—attacking midfielder Talisca and 22-year-old winger Gabriel Veron—signaling an intent to shift toward a faster, counter-attacking style. New head coach Kevin Muscat, fresh from a successful spell in Japan, has drilled an aggressive 3-4-2-1 that already toppled Changchun Yatai 4-1 in the season’s opener, suggesting the transition period may be shorter than feared.
The main challengers look familiar. Shandong Taishan, beaten only twice in 2023, kept the spine of the side intact and added Korean center-back Park Ji-soo to shore up set-piece vulnerabilities that cost them crucial points last year. Beijing Guoan, under newly appointed Serbian manager Slavoljub Djordjevic, swapped inconsistent foreign stars for a cohesive trio of Red Star Belgrade imports, aiming to remedy a defense that conceded 1.6 goals per game in 2023. Bookmakers currently price Taishan at 3.50, Port at 4.00, and Guoan at 6.50 to lift the trophy, reflecting the tight margins expected.
Relegation candidates appear clearer. Shenzhen FC, still grappling with a transfer ban that prevents new registrations, rely on an academy pipeline not yet ready for top-tier football. Meizhou Hakka and Nantong Zhiyun both lack depth up front after key strikers departed in the winter, and early xG (expected goals) models place them in the bottom two of projected standings. The newly promoted pair, Qingdao West Coast and Sichuan Jiuniu, have spent modestly but efficiently, importing Scandinavian league veterans to add steel rather than glamour; most forecasts predict a mid-table finish for both, narrowly above the drop zone.
Individual honors may hinge on foreign firepower. Oscar remains the league’s premier chance creator, averaging 3.1 key passes per 90 in 2023, but Talisca’s arrival could dilute the Brazilian’s monopoly on set pieces. Watch for Cangzhou Mighty Lions’ 19-year-old striker Wang Peng, whose 14 goals in China League One earned a step up; early data suggests he outperformed his xG by 28 %, hinting at either elite finishing or impending regression. If he maintains the former, Wang could become the first domestic Golden Boot winner since Wu Lei in 2018.
Overall, model simulations run by HS Sports Analytics give Shandong Taishan a 34 % probability of clinching the title, Shanghai Port 27 %, and Beijing Guoan 18 %. Yet variance is high; a hypothetical 12-point deduction for any club embroiled in the ongoing financial fair-play audits could flip the table overnight. Until the arbitration chamber releases its final rulings, the only safe prediction is that the 2024 Chinese Super League will be as unpredictable off the pitch as it is competitive on it.
