The 2024–25 Saudi Pro League kicks off on 22 August with 18 clubs, a new home-grown quota, and more global eyeballs than ever. After an off-season that saw another €750 million in fresh signings—and a mini-cleansing of last year’s short-term mercenaries—the league looks tighter at both ends. Here’s how the table finishes in May 2025, with stats modelled on xG, depth charts, coaching stability and—yes—squad hunger.
TITLE RACE
1. Al-Hilal – 78 pts | Even without Kalidou Koulibaly’s aerial dominance, the back line is faster with Ahmed Al-Rawi (19) and Ruben Dias (on loan, Man City covering 70 % wages). Aleksandar Mitrović’s 28 goals top the league; Jorge Jesus keeps the dressing room for one final ride.
2. Al-Nassr – 75 pts | Cristiano Ronaldo scores 25 and logs a league-best 9 assists, but the difference is the January arrival of Bruno Fernandes. The Portuguese pair drag 11 straight wins from February onward; defeat in Riyadh’s Derby (2–3 in Round 29) costs them top spot.
3. Al-Ahli – 69 pts | Roberto Firmino re-invents himself as a roaming No. 10, unlocking new winger Ferran Torres (14 goals). Ivan Toney’s 22 strikes seal third place and a Champions League ticket.
4. Al-Ittihad – 65 pts | Karim Benzema adapts to a deeper role, but the creative load still relies too heavily on him. A run of four away draws in spring stalls their campaign.
THE SURPRISE PACKAGE
Damac finish 6th – their highest top-flight position. Georginio Wijnaldum adds experience, but it’s 22-year-old Moroccan winger Mouad Bassit (9 goals, 12 assists) who earns a €35 m move to Lyon.
RELEGATION DOGFIGHT
16. Al-Okhdood – 32 pts: Late Chris Wilder bounce is not enough.
17. Al-Riyadh – 29 pts: Worst defence (63 conceded) returns them to the First Division.
18. Al-Hazem – 26 pts: Budget cuts catch up; they finish eight points adrift.
GOLDEN BOOT
Mitrović 28 goals, followed by Ronaldo 25 and Toney 22.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Bruno Fernandes. Mid-season arrival changes Al-Nassr’s entire tempo—7.2 expected assists in 16 matches.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Jorge Jesus (Al-Hilal). Becomes the first coach to win back-to-back SPL titles since 2015.
BEST ARAB YOUNGSTER
Saud Abdulhamid (Al-Hilal) – 27 league starts, 12 clean sheets on his flank, €18 m transfer to AC Milan sealed in June.
PLAY-OFF PREDICTION
Al-Khaleej defeat Al-Qadsiah in the newly introduced 3rd–4th place play-off for the final AFC Champions League 2 slot, 4–2 on aggregate.
BOTTOM LINE
Al-Hilal’s blend of continuity and strategic upgrades edges them ahead of Al-Nassr’s star power. For neutrals, the league’s stylistic variety—once derided as a pension league—now offers Europe-worthy tactical battles every weekend. Expect another summer spending wave, but for 2024–25, blue holds sway in Riyadh.
