With two rounds left in the 2023-24 German second division, every point reshuffles promotion hopes and relegation nightmares. Here is how Matchday 34 could play out—and why the odds may not be as obvious as the league table suggests.
1. Hamburger SV – Fortuna Düsseldorf
Volksparkstadion, Friday 18:30 CET
Forecast: 2-1 home win
The Rothosen have won six on the spin at home, scoring 2.4 goals per game. Düsseldorf’s high line looked wobbly against Kiel’s counters last week and now meets a HSV front three that averaged 1.9 expected goals (xG) across the last five. Expect early pressure; if HSV leads by 60’, Fortuna’s urgency plays into Robert Glatzel’s preferred half-space runs.
2. FC St. Pauli – SV Elversberg
Millerntor, Sunday 13:30 CET
Forecast: 1-1 draw
Pauli’s promotion champagne is on ice after the shock defeat at Hansa. Coach Fabian Hürzeler may rest key legs with Darmstadt looming next week. Elversberg, safe in mid-table, has the division’s third-best away xG difference since March (plus-2.7). Look for a low-tempo first half and a late equalizer from Jannik Rochelt cutting inside on tired legs.
3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern – SC Paderborn
Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Saturday 20:30 CET
Forecast: 3-2 home win
Both sides need victories for contrasting dreams: Lautern still eyes the top six while Paderborn clings to faint promotion odds. The Red Devils’ direct style (fourth in long balls completed) clashes with SP’s build-from-the-back philosophy. Kai Brünker’s aerial presence versus Paderborn’s 19-year-old centre-back Filippo Mane is a mismatch; expect at least one flick-on goal.
4. Hertha BSC – Eintracht Braunschweig
Olympiastadion, Saturday 13:00 CET
Forecast: 2-0 home win
Hertha’s xGA (expected goals against) in their last three home fixtures was the lowest in the league (0.8 per game). Braunschweig has scored once in five away matches, and their main striker, Ermin Bičakčić, is suspended. If Dodi Lukebakio starts centrally, the Berliners should kill the contest before the hour mark, effectively sealing Braunschweig’s relegation.
5. Hannover 96 – SV Wehen Wiesbaden
Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Sunday 13:30 CET
Forecast: 1-2 away win
The narrative favors Hannover chasing promotion, yet the numbers tell another story: Wehen’s counter-press has forced a league-high 38 high turnovers since April, and Hannover’s build-up grows lateral when midfield anchor Sei Muroya is pressed. A late Johannes Wurtz penalty—Hannover concede the most spot-kicks in 2. Bundesliga—could swing the upset.
Title Outlook
If HSV and St. Pauli both win, the gap would stay at three points heading into the final day, but Pauli’s superior goal difference means a draw on Sunday may be enough. Don’t rule out Paderborn sneaking into the play-off; their remaining schedule (Kiel at home, then relegated Nürnberg away) is the softest of the chasing pack.
Relegation Battle
Nürnberg’s -22 goal difference makes them vulnerable; even a draw at Karlsruhe might not suffice if 16th-placed Hansa Rostock surprises Kiel. Meanwhile, Braunschweig almost certainly needs to win both remaining games and rely on a seven-goal swing—mission improbable.
Best Bets (odds at publication)
– HSV to win vs Düsseldorf – 2.00
– Over 2.5 goals in Kaiserslautern-Paderborn – 1.70
– Wehen double chance @ Hannover – 1.91
Whatever the outcomes, Matchday 34 will set up a final-day script worthy of Germany’s most dramatic division. Keep your calculators—and your heart medication—ready.
